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A Finance Approach to Climate Stress Testing

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  • Schoenmaker, Dirk
  • Reinders, Henk Jan
  • Van Dijk, Mathijs

Abstract

There is increasing interest in assessing the impact of climate policies on the value of financial sector assets, and consequently on financial stability. Prior studies either take a “black box†macro-modelling approach to climate stress testing or focus solely on equity instruments – though banks’ exposures predominantly consist of debt. We take a more tractable finance (valuation) approach at the industry-level and use a Merton contingent claims model to assess the impact of a carbon tax shock on the market value of corporate debt and residential mortgages. We calibrate the model using detailed, proprietary exposure data for the Dutch banking sector. For a €100 to €200 per tonne carbon tax we find a substantial decline in the market value of banks’ assets equivalent to 4-63% of core capital, depending on policy choices.

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  • Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "A Finance Approach to Climate Stress Testing," CEPR Discussion Papers 14609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14609
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    1. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Yan, Shuli & Wang, Jingyuan & Wu, Liangpeng, 2024. "Dynamics of green transition based on stock-flow consistent model considering compound risks," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 530-553.
    3. Allen N. Berger & Filippo Curti & Nika Lazaryan & Atanas Mihov & Raluca A. Roman, 2023. "Climate Risks in the U.S. Banking Sector: Evidence from Operational Losses and Extreme Storms," Working Papers 21-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    5. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Karim, Sitara & Palma, Alessia, 2024. "Carbon emissions and liquidity management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    6. Deng, Yirui & Yin, Mengjuan & Xu, Xiaofeng & Yu, Lean & Gao, Guowei & Ma, Li, 2024. "How to develop global energy-intensive sectors in the presence of carbon tariffs?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Eric Jondeau & Benoît Mojon & Cyril Monnet, 2021. "Greening (Runnable) Brown Assets with a Liquidity Backstop," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
    8. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.
    9. Sebastien Gallet & Antje Hendricks & Julja Prodani, 2024. "The ecosystem service degradation sensitivity indicator (EDSI): A new framework for understanding the financial risk repercussions of nature degradation," Working Papers 814, DNB.
    10. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2023. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Wang, Chao & Li, Mengyu & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2024. "Does credit carbon exposure affect banks' profits and risks? Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    12. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & McCarten, Matthew & Tan, Eric K.M., 2023. "Climate transition risk in U.S. loan portfolios: Are all banks the same?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Chao, Wang & Jing, Ma & Xiaoxing, Liu, 2023. "Optimizing systemic risk through credit network reconstruction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2023. "In search of climate distress risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," Working Paper Series 2757, European Central Bank.
    16. repec:fip:fedpwp:96170 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Siddhartha Biswas & Mallick Hossain & David Zink, 2023. "California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Richard Berner & Robert Engle & Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System," Staff Reports 977, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Chabot, Miia & Bertrand, Jean-Louis, 2023. "Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence from the European financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate stress test; Contingent claims analysis; Climate policies; Carbon tax; Banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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