IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26497.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves and Firm Value

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Atanasova
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

Do capital markets reflect the possibility that fossil fuel reserves may become “stranded assets” in the transition to a low carbon economy? We examine the relation between oil firms’ value and their proved reserves. Using a sample of 600 North American oil firms for the period 1999 to 2018, we document that while reserves are an important component of oil firm value, the growth of these reserves has a negative effect on firm value. This negative effect on value is stronger for oil producers with higher extraction costs. When we decompose total reserves into developed and undeveloped reserves, we show that the negative effect of reserves growth on value is due to firms growing their undeveloped oil reserves. Unlike developed, undeveloped reserves require major capital expenditures and longer time before they can be extracted. We also document that the negative effect is stronger for undeveloped oil reserves located in countries with strict climate policies. Our evidence is consistent with markets penalizing future investment in undeveloped reserves growth due to climate policy risk. High level of institutional ownership, stock market liquidity and analyst coverage do not change the negative effect of undeveloped reserves growth on firm value.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Atanasova & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves and Firm Value," NBER Working Papers 26497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26497
    Note: AP EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26497.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleimeier, S. & Viehs, P.M., 2016. "Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Enrico Botta & Tomasz Koźluk, 2014. "Measuring Environmental Policy Stringency in OECD Countries: A Composite Index Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1177, OECD Publishing.
    3. Michael Jakob & Jérôme Hilaire, 2015. "Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 150-151, January.
    4. Hong, Harrison & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2009. "The price of sin: The effects of social norms on markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 15-36, July.
    5. de Haas, Ralph & Popov, A., 2018. "Financial Development and Industrial Pollution," Other publications TiSEM a0a4fb82-734a-442a-9ea1-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    7. de Haas, Ralph & Popov, A., 2018. "Financial Development and Industrial Pollution," Other publications TiSEM a0a4fb82-734a-442a-9ea1-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    2. Miriam Breitenstein & Carl-Philipp Anke & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2022. "Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(5), pages 27-50, September.
    3. Miguel, Faruk & Pedraza, Alvaro & Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia, 2024. "Climate-change regulations: Bank lending and real effects," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies," Working Papers No 10/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Cervera, Ignacio & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2024. "Credit risk and bubble behavior of credit default swaps in the corporate energy sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 702-731.
    7. repec:wbk:wbrwps:10266 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.
    10. Alessi, Lucia & Elisa, Ossola & Panzica, Roberto, 2021. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    11. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    13. Pablo Neudorfer, 2022. "Tail risk in the fossil fuel industry: an option implied analysis around the unburnable carbon news," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 493-511, March.
    14. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2023. "In search of climate distress risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Alvaro Pedraza & Fredy Pulga & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2024. "Global Bank Lending Under Climate Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 858-901, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manthos D. Delis & Kathrin de Greiff & Maria Iosifidi & Steven Ongena, 2024. "Being stranded with fossil fuel reserves? Climate policy risk and the pricing of bank loans," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 239-265, August.
    2. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2020. "Climate Sin Stocks: Stock Price Reactions to Global Climate Strikes," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    3. Tiziano De Angelis & Peter Tankov & Olivier David Zerbib, 2022. "Climate Impact Investing," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 676 JEL Classification: G, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    4. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Simona Malovana & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Zuzana Gric, 2023. "What Do Economists Think About the Green Transition? Exploring the Impact of Environmental Awareness," Working Papers 2023/6, Czech National Bank.
    6. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2023. "Issuing bonds during the Covid-19 pandemic: Was there an ESG premium?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner & Richard J Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2021. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 748-787.
    8. Shackleton, Mark & Yan, Jiali & Yao, Yaqiong, 2022. "What drives a firm's ES performance? Evidence from stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Lei, Ni & Miao, Qin & Yao, Xin, 2023. "Does the implementation of green credit policy improve the ESG performance of enterprises? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Bauckloh, Michael Tobias & Beyer, Victor & Klein, Christian, 2022. "Does it pay to invest in dirty industries? New insights on the shunned-stock hypothesis," CFR Working Papers 22-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. John Byrne & Peter Lund & Job Taminiau, 2022. "Rapid climate transformation requires transformative policy and science thinking—An editorial essay," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), January.
    12. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    13. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    14. Martijn Boermans & Rients Galema, 2023. "Carbon home bias of European investors," Working Papers 786, DNB.
    15. Ilaria Piatti & Joel Shapiro & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Sustainable Investing and Public Goods Provision," Working Papers 969, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2021. "Predicting corporate carbon footprints for climate finance risk analyses: A machine learning approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Kin Sibanda & Rufaro Garidzirai & Farai Mushonga & Dorcas Gonese, 2023. "Natural Resource Rents, Institutional Quality, and Environmental Degradation in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-11, January.
    18. Gao, Bin & Zhang, Jinlong & Xie, Jun & Zhang, Wenjie, 2023. "The impact of carbon risk on the pricing efficiency of the capital market: Evidence from a natural experiment in china," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Ricardo Gimeno & Clara I. González, 2022. "The role of a green factor in stock prices. When Fama & French go green," Working Papers 2207, Banco de España.
    20. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2022. "Credit Default Swaps and Corporate Carbon Emissions in Japan," Discussion papers 22098, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.