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Do noise traders influence stock prices?

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  • Morgan Kelly

Abstract

This paper tests a smart money-noise trader model directly by comparing its predictions with the behavior of actual investors. It assumes that individual probability of being a noise trader is diminishing in income, high-income households are smart money, lower-income households are noise traders with passive investors in between. Market data behave as predicted: high participation by the general population is a negative predictor of one-year returns, and is associated with law participation by very high-income groups. The implications for the equity premium puzzle of the low returns earned by noise traders are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan Kelly, 1997. "Do noise traders influence stock prices?," Open Access publications 10197/520, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/520
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/520
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Čížek, Pavel, 2008. "General Trimmed Estimation: Robust Approach To Nonlinear And Limited Dependent Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1500-1529, December.
    2. Cizek, P., 2007. "General Trimmed Estimation : Robust Approach to Nonlinear and Limited Dependent Variable Models (Replaces DP 2007-1)," Other publications TiSEM eeccf622-dd18-41d4-a2f9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Kelly, Morgan, 1997. "Do Noise Traders Influence Stock Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 351-363, August.
    4. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Schuppli, Michael & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 190-201, March.
    6. Chen, Zhenhua & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Zhang, Yifan, 2022. "Smart money in China's A-share market: Evidence from big data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Cizek, P., 2004. "Asymptotics of Least Trimmed Squares Regression," Discussion Paper 2004-72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    9. Bohl, Martin T. & Schuppli, Michael & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 190-201, March.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    12. Pavlo Blavatskyy & Ganna Pogrebna, 2010. "Reevaluating evidence on myopic loss aversion: aggregate patterns versus individual choices," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 159-171, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stocks--prices; Investment analysis; Financial performance; Stock exchanges & current events; Capitalists and financiers; Individual investors; Rate of return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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