IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v70y2024icp351-364.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for secular stagnation in investment rates using a Bayesian multilevel model

Author

Listed:
  • Strauss, Ilan
  • Yang, Jangho

Abstract

Following Hansen (1939), we use a Bayesian multilevel (‘mixed effects’) model on a large firm-level panel to isolate the secular decline in autonomous investment demand and test for causes of it. Our firm-level regression shows that the investment slowdown is a long-standing feature across firms in 21 advanced economies since 1998 and continuing until the present (2020). Using a group-level (‘macro’) regression, we try to explain firms’ estimated secular decline in autonomous investment demand. We find that a shortage of relative investment opportunities – as per the original secular stagnation thesis – explains 40% of the variation in this secular slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2024. "Testing for secular stagnation in investment rates using a Bayesian multilevel model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-364.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:70:y:2024:i:c:p:351-364
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.03.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X2400047X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2024.03.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis Alexander & Janice Eberly, 2018. "Investment Hollowing Out," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 5-30, March.
    2. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    3. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    4. Clark, Tom S. & Linzer, Drew A., 2015. "Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects?," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 399-408, May.
    5. Joel Rabinovich, 2019. "The financialization of the non‐financial corporation. A critique to the financial turn of accumulation hypothesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 738-775, November.
    6. Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain & Jan Stráský & Fusako Menkyna, 2014. "Investment Gaps after the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1168, OECD Publishing.
    7. jae sim & Dalida Kadyrzhanova & Antonio Falato, 2013. "Rising Intangible Capital, Shrinking Debt Capacity, and the US Corporate Savings Glut," 2013 Meeting Papers 1151, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    9. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    10. Ryan A. Decker & Jacob Williams, 2023. "A note on industry concentration measurement," FEDS Notes 2023-02-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Mark Setterfield, 1999. "Expectations, Path Dependence and Effective Demand: A Macroeconomic Model along Keynesian Lines," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 479-501, March.
    12. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    13. Philippon, Thomas & Gutierrez, German, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 12536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. Clark, Tom S. & Linzer, Drew A., 2015. "Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects?," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 399-408, May.
    17. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2006. "On the Accuracy of Different Measures of q," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 5-33, September.
    18. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    19. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    20. Lewellen, Jonathan & Lewellen, Katharina, 2016. "Investment and Cash Flow: New Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 1135-1164, August.
    21. Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa & Vivian Garrido Moreira, 2020. "Stagnation and unnaturally low interest rates: a simple critique of the amended New Consensus and the Sraffian supermultiplier alternative," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 365-384, July.
    22. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    23. Anthony Scaperlanda, 1977. "Hansen’s Secular Stagnation Thesis Once Again," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 223-243, June.
    24. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    25. Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2017. "Is the US Public Corporation in Trouble?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
    26. Kahle, Kathleen & Stulz, René M., 2021. "Why are corporate payouts so high in the 2000s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1359-1380.
    27. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20198 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    29. Rachael Meager, 2019. "Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Seven Randomized Experiments," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 57-91, January.
    30. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    31. Nicholas Kaldor, 1966. "Marginal Productivity and the Macro-Economic Theories of Distribution: Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(4), pages 309-319.
    32. Özgür Orhangazi, 2019. "The role of intangible assets in explaining the investment–profit puzzle," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(5), pages 1251-1286.
    33. Pepper, John V., 2002. "Robust inferences from random clustered samples: an application using data from the panel study of income dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 341-345, May.
    34. Joan Farre-Mensa & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2016. "Do Measures of Financial Constraints Measure Financial Constraints?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 271-308.
    35. Nicolas Crouzet & Janice C. Eberly, 2019. "Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles," NBER Working Papers 25869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    37. Backhouse, Roger E., 2017. "From Business Cycle Theory To The Theory Of Employment: Alvin Hansen And Paul Samuelson," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 89-99, March.
    38. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    39. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1996. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment: Response to Kaplan and Zingales," NBER Working Papers 5462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Nicolas Crouzet & Janice C. Eberly, 2021. "Rents and Intangible Capital: A Q+ Framework," NBER Working Papers 28988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    42. Andrew Gelman & Ben Goodrich & Jonah Gabry & Aki Vehtari, 2019. "R-squared for Bayesian Regression Models," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(3), pages 307-309, July.
    43. Leila E. Davis, 2018. "Financialization and the non†financial corporation: An investigation of firm†level investment behavior in the United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 270-307, February.
    44. Cavalleri, Maria Chiara & Eliet, Alice & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Soares, Ana & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "Concentration, market power and dynamism in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2253, European Central Bank.
    45. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    46. Matias Covarrubias & Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2020. "From Good to Bad Concentration? US Industries over the Past 30 Years," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-46.
    47. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Leila E. Davis, 2017. "Financialization And Investment: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1332-1358, December.
    48. A. Reeves Johnson, 2022. "Cyclical stagnation: the continental contribution to Alvin Hansen’s stagnation thesis," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 369-386, March.
    49. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    50. Keil, Jan, 2017. "The trouble with approximating industry concentration from Compustat," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 467-479.
    51. Mark Tranmer & David G Steel, 2001. "Ignoring a Level in a Multilevel Model: Evidence from UK Census Data," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 33(5), pages 941-948, May.
    52. Li, Quan & Reuveny, Rafael, 2003. "Economic Globalization and Democracy: An Empirical Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 29-54, January.
    53. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2020. "Corporate Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence on the Advanced Economy Investment Slowdown," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    2. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Doğuhan Sündal, 2023. "Not your average firm: A quantile regression approach to firm‐level investment in the United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 858-886, November.
    4. Fu, Fangjian & Huang, Sheng & Wang, Rong, 2022. "Why Do U.S. Firms Invest Less over Time?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 15-42.
    5. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Terranova, Roberta & Turco, Enrico M., 2022. "Concentration, stagnation and inequality: An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 569-595.
    7. Sai Ding & Minjoo Kim & Xiao Zhang, 2021. "New Insight on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity," Working Papers 2021_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    9. Efraim Benmelech & Nitish Kumar & Raghuram Rajan, 2024. "The Decline of Secured Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 35-93, February.
    10. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural modelling of financial constraints on investment: where do we stand?," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 2, pages 40-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Leila Davis & Joao Paulo A. de Souza, 2022. "Churning and profitability in the U.S. corporate sector," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 924-957, July.
    12. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2023. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2675-2702.
    13. Lucia Granelli & Martin Habet & Guergana Stanoeva & Gaetano D’Adamo & Robert Gampfer, 2020. "Puzzles in Non-Financial Corporate Sector Savings across the G20," European Economy - Economic Briefs 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Ilker Yilmaz, 2022. "Leverage and Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity: Evidence from Muscat Securities Market in Oman," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.
    15. Morlacco, Monica & Zeke, David, 2021. "Monetary policy, customer capital, and market power," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 116-134.
    16. Vaziri, M., 2022. "Antitrust Law and Business Dynamism," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Reddy, Niall, 2024. "“Downsize And Distribute” Or “Merge And Monopolize”? A Critique Of Corporate Financialization Theories," SocArXiv 2zy5h, Center for Open Science.
    18. Gaurav Gupta & Jitendra Mahakud, 2019. "Alternative measure of financial development and investment-cash flow sensitivity: evidence from an emerging economy," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, December.
    19. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Working Paper Research 28, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Hein, Eckhard, 2020. "Financialisation and stagnation: A macroeconomic regime perspective," IPE Working Papers 149/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; Investment rates; Firm-level data; Tobin’s Q; Bayesian econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:70:y:2024:i:c:p:351-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.