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The MAX effect: Lottery stocks with price limits and limits to arbitrage

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  • Hung, Weifeng
  • Yang, J. Jimmy

Abstract

We modify the Bali et al.’s (2011) MAX measure (maximum daily return over the prior month) when the observed returns are capped at the daily price limit to address the issue of homogeneous MAX across stocks. Our results indicate that the modified MAX measure can be a significant predictor of future stock returns. The modified MAX effect is not a manifestation of the idiosyncratic volatility effect. We also find that the modified MAX measure could be an alternative proxy for arbitrage risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung, Weifeng & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2018. "The MAX effect: Lottery stocks with price limits and limits to arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 77-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:41:y:2018:i:c:p:77-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2018.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Zi-Mei Wang & Donald Lien, 2022. "Is maximum daily return a lottery? Evidence from monthly revenue announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 545-600, August.
    2. Lu, Jing & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2023. "CEO overconfidence, lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Peng, Shu-Cing, 2023. "Investor propensity to speculate and price delay in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Time-varying MAX preference: Evidence from revenue announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Wang, Zi-Mei & Lien, Donald, 2023. "Limited attention, salient anchor, and the modified MAX effect: Evidence from Taiwan’s stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Grobys, Klaus & Junttila, Juha, 2021. "Speculation and lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Lin, Chaonan & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Lu, Chien-Lin, 2023. "Why is the Amihud (2002) measure priced in Taiwan: Illiquidity or mispricing?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Lin, Mei-Chen & Lin, Yu-Ling, 2021. "Idiosyncratic skewness and cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Wang, Cheng & Han, Jing, 2023. "Prospect theory and mutual fund flows: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Hu, Conghui & Liu, Yu-Jane & Xu, Xin, 2021. "The valuation effect of stock dividends or splits: Evidence from a catering perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-179.
    12. Yin, Libo & Yang, Zhichen, 2022. "The profitability effect: Insight from a dynamic perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Tsai, Chia-Fen & Chang, Jung-Hsien & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2021. "Lottery preferences and retail short selling," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Yao, Shouyu & Wang, Chunfeng & Fang, Zhenming & Chiao, Chaoshin, 2021. "MAX is not the max under the interference of daily price limits: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 348-369.
    15. Gould, John & Yang, Joey W. & Singh, Ranjodh & Yeo, Ben, 2023. "The seasonality of lottery-like stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 383-400.
    16. Khoa Dang Duong & Ngoc Thi Thanh Nguyen & Nga Thu Thi Do & Hoa Thanh Phan Le, 2024. "Limit to Arbitrage and Distress Risk Puzzle in Vietnam: Does Corporate Bankruptcy Regulation Matter?," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    17. Zeng, Zhaoxiang & Wang, Guojun & Tang, Guohao, 2024. "Price limits hitting effect and cross-sectional stock returns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Melisa Ozdamar & Levent Akdeniz & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MAX; Price limit; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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