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What effect did the introduction of Bitcoin futures have on the Bitcoin spot market?

Author

Listed:
  • Akanksha Jalan

    (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business)

  • Roman Matkovskyy

    (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business)

  • Andrew Urquhart

    (Henley Business School [University of Reading] - UOR - University of Reading)

Abstract

Bitcoin futures were introduced in December 2017 and this was seen by some as a sign of the most popular cryptocurrency finally being accepted by the financial community. In this paper, we examine the impact of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on the Bitcoin spot market in terms of five characteristics – returns, volatility, skewness, kurtosis and liquidity, using a Bayesian diffusion-regression (state-space) structural time-series model. Our results indicate that the introduction of bitcoin futures potentially exerted a downward impact on the USD bitcoin spot market return and skewness and an upward one on volatility, kurtosis and liquidity, which became higher after futures were introduced. Therefore, our paper offers important insights for investors and regulators, while providing some guidance as to the potential impact of futures markets on other cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Akanksha Jalan & Roman Matkovskyy & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "What effect did the introduction of Bitcoin futures have on the Bitcoin spot market?," Post-Print hal-03417218, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03417218
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2020.1869992
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dean Fantazzini, 2022. "Crypto-Coins and Credit Risk: Modelling and Forecasting Their Probability of Death," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Vassilios Babalos & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Does the Introduction of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Affect Spot Returns and Volatility of Major Cryptocurrencies?," Working Papers 202416, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Jalan, Akanksha & Matkovskyy, Roman & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2021. "“Shiny” crypto assets: A systemic look at gold-backed cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Dirk G. Baur & Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading behavior in bitcoin futures: Following the “smart money”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1304-1323, July.
    5. Arun Narayanasamy & Humnath Panta & Rohit Agarwal, 2023. "Relations among Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Spot, Investor Attention, and Sentiment," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Zhang, Chuanhai & Chen, Haicui & Peng, Zhe, 2022. "Does Bitcoin futures trading reduce the normal and jump volatility in the spot market? Evidence from GARCH-jump models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    7. Jalan, Akanksha & Matkovskyy, Roman & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2023. "The role of interpersonal trust in cryptocurrency adoption," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2024. "The Bitcoin volume-volatility relationship: A high frequency analysis of futures and spot exchanges," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Weige Huang & Xiang Gao, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin Futures: A Lasso-BMA Two-Step Predictor Selection for Investment and Hedging Strategies," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    13. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
    14. Yang, Zixiu & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading," MPRA Paper 115508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Liu, Jinan & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2024. "Hedging inflation expectations in the cryptocurrency futures market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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