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Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis

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  • Zhang, Zhichao
  • Chau, Frankie
  • Zhang, Wenting

Abstract

This paper provides a market-microstructure analysis of exchange rate dynamics in the Chinese foreign exchange market using a vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. An index of order flow is constructed in the Chinese context to reflect excess demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. The VAR model is then estimated to examine whether, and to what extent, order flow influences the long-term level and short-term fluctuations of the Chinese exchange rate. Focusing on the relationship between cumulative order flow and the exchange rate of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, we find that order flow as a measure of excess demand pressure explains a significant part of the fluctuations in the RMB–dollar exchange rate. Specifically, the results show that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship among the order flow, macro factors and the exchange rate. Overall, these findings are important in understanding the role of order flow in exchange rate determination and bear important implications for practitioners and market regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:303-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.08.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    3. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Liu, Tao, 2014. "The onshore-offshore interaction of RMB market: a high-frequency analysis," MPRA Paper 63905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ma, Dandan & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wan-Li & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change news on China's financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Abolaji Daniel Anifowose & Izlin Ismail & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor, 2018. "Currency Order Flow and Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Foreign Exchange Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 902-920, August.
    9. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Microstructure; Order flow; Foreign exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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