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Customer order flow, information and liquidity on the Hungarian foreign exchange market

Author

Listed:
  • Áron Gereben

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • György Gyomai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (at the time of writing))

  • Norbert Kiss M.

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Customer order flow – signed transaction volume between market makers and their customers – is a key concept in the microstructure approach to exchange rates. We attempt to explore what the data tells us about the role of customer order flow in the market for Hungarian forint, using the standard analytical framework of the FX microstructure literature. Our results confirm that customer order flow helps to explain exchange rate fluctuations, which suggests that customer order flow is a key source of information for the market makers. We also find that domestic and foreign customers play significantly different roles on the euro/Hungarian forint market: foreign players' order flow seems to provide the information that drives exchange rate fluctuations, whereas domestic customers are the source of market liquidity. We present evidence suggesting that current order flow from customers is able to provide a significantly better ‘forecast’ for the the exchange rate than the random walk benchmark in a simple Meese-Rogoff-type framework. However, we were unable to improve upon the random walk in a more realistic forecasting exercise. Finally, we highlight some features of our data that suggest that beyond microstructure, the traditional portfolio-balance channel of exchange rate determination is also in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Áron Gereben & György Gyomai & Norbert Kiss M., 2006. "Customer order flow, information and liquidity on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," MNB Working Papers 2006/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2006/8
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp2006-8.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    2. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Jakree Koosakul & Nasha Ananchotikul, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Order Flows and the Thai Exchange Rate Dynamics," PIER Discussion Papers 104, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Anna Boldizsár & Zalán Kocsis & Zsuzsa Nagy-Kékesi & Gábor Sztanó, 2020. "FX Forward Market in Hungary: General Characteristics and Impact of the COVID Crisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(3), pages 5-51.
    5. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    6. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2014. "Foreign exchange customers and dealers: Who’s driving whom?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 213-218.
    7. Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    8. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    10. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
    11. Bal??zs ??gert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Sviatoslav Rosov & F. Douglas Foster, 2014. "Measuring the information content of customer foreign exchange orders," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(2), pages 247-264, May.
    13. Carol Osler & Xuhang Wang, 2012. "The Microstructure of Currency Markets," Working Papers 49, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    14. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:134:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    16. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    customer order flow; microstructure; exchange rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

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