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Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries

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  • Gabriele Galati

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between trading volumes, volatility and bid-ask spreads in foreign exchange markets. It uses a new data set that includes daily data on trading volumes for the dollar exchange rates of seven currencies from emerging market countries. The sample period is 1 January 1998 to 30 June 1999. The results are broadly consistent with the findings of the literature that used futures volumes as proxies for total foreign exchange trading. I find that in most cases unexpected trading volumes and volatility are positively correlated, suggesting that both are driven by the arrival of public information, as predicted by the mixture of distributions hypothesis. I also find that the correlation between trading volumes and volatility is positive during "normal" periods but turns negative when volatility increases sharply. Finally, the results suggest that volatility and spreads are positively correlated, as suggested by inventory cost models. However, contrary to the prediction of these models, I do not find evidence of a significant impact of unexpected trading volumes on spreads.

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  • Gabriele Galati, 2000. "Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 93, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shang-Jin Wei, 1991. "Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 409, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    3. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-661, July.
    4. W B Cornell, 1978. "Determinants of the Bid ask Spread Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 9(2), pages 33-41, June.
    5. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    6. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1996. "One Day in June 1993: A Study of the Working of the Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 107-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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