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Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

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  • Voyant, Cyril
  • Soubdhan, Ted
  • Lauret, Philippe
  • David, Mathieu
  • Muselli, Marc

Abstract

In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set of 20 statistical parameters in order to estimate the short term predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby to propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardless the forecasting methods used. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometrics but never in global radiation prediction, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations. This study gives a judgment for engineers and researchers on the installation or management of solar plants and could help in minimizing the energy crisis allowing to improve the renewable energy part of the energy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Voyant, Cyril & Soubdhan, Ted & Lauret, Philippe & David, Mathieu & Muselli, Marc, 2015. "Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 671-679.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:90:y:2015:i:p1:p:671-679
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.07.089
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    1. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    2. Walter Richardson & Hariharan Krishnaswami & Rolando Vega & Michael Cervantes, 2017. "A Low Cost, Edge Computing, All-Sky Imager for Cloud Tracking and Intra-Hour Irradiance Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Seul-Gi Kim & Jae-Yoon Jung & Min Kyu Sim, 2019. "A Two-Step Approach to Solar Power Generation Prediction Based on Weather Data Using Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Joseph Ndong & Ted Soubdhan, 2022. "Extracting Statistical Properties of Solar and Photovoltaic Power Production for the Scope of Building a Sophisticated Forecasting Framework," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Demirhan, Haydar & Renwick, Zoe, 2018. "Missing value imputation for short to mid-term horizontal solar irradiance data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 998-1012.
    6. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join & Cyril Voyant, 2018. "Prediction bands for solar energy: New short-term time series forecasting techniques," Post-Print hal-01736518, HAL.
    7. Fateh Mehazzem & Maina André & Rudy Calif, 2022. "Efficient Output Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on MPPT Fuzzy Logic Technique and Solar Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Approach in a Tropical Insular Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Benali, L. & Notton, G. & Fouilloy, A. & Voyant, C. & Dizene, R., 2019. "Solar radiation forecasting using artificial neural network and random forest methods: Application to normal beam, horizontal diffuse and global components," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 871-884.
    9. Gairaa, Kacem & Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Benkaciali, Saïd & Guermoui, Mawloud, 2022. "Contribution of ordinal variables to short-term global solar irradiation forecasting for sites with low variabilities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 890-902.
    10. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Darras, Christophe & Fouilloy, Alexis & Motte, Fabrice, 2017. "Uncertainties in global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning: The multilayer perceptron case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 248-257.
    12. Fouilloy, Alexis & Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Motte, Fabrice & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Guillot, Emmanuel & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Solar irradiation prediction with machine learning: Forecasting models selection method depending on weather variability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 620-629.

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