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Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation

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  • Voyant, Cyril
  • Darras, Christophe
  • Muselli, Marc
  • Paoli, Christophe
  • Nivet, Marie-Laure
  • Poggi, Philippe

Abstract

It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the hourly global radiation. The knowledge of this quantity is essential for the grid manager or the private PV producer in order to anticipate fluctuations related to clouds occurrences and to stabilize the injected PV power. In this paper, we test both methodologies: single and hybrid predictors. In the first class, we include the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA), and persistence models. In the second class, we mix these predictors with Bayesian rules to obtain ad hoc models selections, and Bayesian averages of outputs related to single models. If MLP and ARMA are equivalent (nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both), this hybridization allows a nRMSE gain upper than 14% points compared to the persistence estimation (nRMSE=37% versus 51%).

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  • Voyant, Cyril & Darras, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Poggi, Philippe, 2014. "Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 218-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:114:y:2014:i:c:p:218-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.09.051
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    6. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur, 2016. "A novel adaptive approach for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 628-633.
    7. Hussain, Sajid & AlAlili, Ali, 2017. "A hybrid solar radiation modeling approach using wavelet multiresolution analysis and artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 540-550.
    8. Li, Shuai & Ma, Hongjie & Li, Weiyi, 2017. "Typical solar radiation year construction using k-means clustering and discrete-time Markov chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 720-731.
    9. Ramedani, Zeynab & Omid, Mahmoud & Keyhani, Alireza & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Khoshnevisan, Benyamin, 2014. "Potential of radial basis function based support vector regression for global solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1005-1011.
    10. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta Kumar & Sahoo, Sudhansu Sekhar, 2016. "Prediction and application of solar radiation with soft computing over traditional and conventional approach – A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 778-796.
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    13. Teke, Ahmet & Yıldırım, H. Başak & Çelik, Özgür, 2015. "Evaluation and performance comparison of different models for the estimation of solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1097-1107.
    14. Shireen, Tahasin & Shao, Chenhui & Wang, Hui & Li, Jingjing & Zhang, Xi & Li, Mingyang, 2018. "Iterative multi-task learning for time-series modeling of solar panel PV outputs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 654-662.
    15. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence-Based Improvement of Empirical Methods for Accurate Global Solar Radiation Forecast: Development and Comparative Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-42, August.
    16. Hussain, Sajid & Al-Alili, Ali, 2016. "A new approach for model validation in solar radiation using wavelet, phase and frequency coherence analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 639-649.
    17. Bouabdallah, A. & Olivier, J.C. & Bourguet, S. & Machmoum, M. & Schaeffer, E., 2015. "Safe sizing methodology applied to a standalone photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 266-274.
    18. Hassan, Gasser E. & Youssef, M. Elsayed & Mohamed, Zahraa E. & Ali, Mohamed A. & Hanafy, Ahmed A., 2016. "New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 437-450.
    19. Khayyam, Hamid & Naebe, Minoo & Bab-Hadiashar, Alireza & Jamshidi, Farshid & Li, Quanxiang & Atkiss, Stephen & Buckmaster, Derek & Fox, Bronwyn, 2015. "Stochastic optimization models for energy management in carbonization process of carbon fiber production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 643-655.
    20. Voyant, Cyril & Soubdhan, Ted & Lauret, Philippe & David, Mathieu & Muselli, Marc, 2015. "Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 671-679.
    21. Rohani, Abbas & Taki, Morteza & Abdollahpour, Masoumeh, 2018. "A novel soft computing model (Gaussian process regression with K-fold cross validation) for daily and monthly solar radiation forecasting (Part: I)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 411-422.
    22. Long, Huan & Zhang, Zijun & Su, Yan, 2014. "Analysis of daily solar power prediction with data-driven approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 29-37.
    23. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    24. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.

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