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Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110

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  • Steward, David R.
  • Allen, Andrew J.

Abstract

Peak groundwater depletion from overtapping aquifers beyond recharge rates occurs as the depletion rate increases until a peak occurs followed by a decreasing trend as pumping equilibrates towards available recharge. The logistic equation of Hubbert's study of peak oil is used to project measurements at a set of observation wells, which provide estimates of saturated thickness and changes in groundwater storage from 1930 to 2110. The annual rate of depletion in High Plains Aquifer of the central USA is estimated to have peaked at 8.25×109m3/yr in 2006 followed by projected decreases to 4.0×109m3/yr in 2110. The timing of peaks follows a south–north progression, with peaks occurs in 1999 for Texas, 2002 for New Mexico, 2010 for Kansas, 2012 for Oklahoma and 2023 for Colorado; peaks do not occur before 2110 for Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming. The manifestation of peak groundwater depletion contributes towards the more comprehensive understanding necessary to assess potential vulnerabilities in the water-food nexus posed by aquifer depletion.

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  • Steward, David R. & Allen, Andrew J., 2016. "Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 36-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:170:y:2016:i:c:p:36-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.10.003
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    Cited by:

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    5. Kishore, Prabhat & Singh, Dharm Raj & Srivastava, Shivendra & Kumar, Pramod & Jha, Girish Kumar, 2021. "Impact of Subsoil Water Preservation Act, 2009 on Burgeoning Trend of Groundwater Depletion in Punjab, India," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315198, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    7. Quintana Ashwell, Nicolas E. & Peterson, Jeffrey M. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2018. "Optimal groundwater management under climate change and technical progress," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 67-83.
    8. Gonçalves, Ivo Zution & Mekonnen, Mesfin M. & Neale, Christopher M.U. & Campos, Isidro & Neale, Michael R., 2020. "Temporal and spatial variations of irrigation water use for commercial corn fields in Central Nebraska," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Haacker, Erin M.K. & Cotterman, Kayla A. & Smidt, Samuel J. & Kendall, Anthony D. & Hyndman, David W., 2019. "Effects of management areas, drought, and commodity prices on groundwater decline patterns across the High Plains Aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 259-273.
    10. Caleb M. Koch & Heinrich H. Nax, 2022. "Groundwater Usage and Strategic Complements: Part I (Instrumental Variables)," Games, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Katuwal, Krishna B. & Cho, Youngkoo & Singh, Sukhbir & Angadi, Sangamesh V. & Begna, Sultan & Stamm, Michael, 2020. "Soil water extraction pattern and water use efficiency of spring canola under growth-stage-based irrigation management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    12. Perez-Quesada, Gabriela & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Steward, David R., 2020. "Quantifying the economic costs of High Plains Aquifer depletion," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Ali Ajaz & Sumon Datta & Scott Stoodley, 2020. "High Plains Aquifer–State of Affairs of Irrigated Agriculture and Role of Irrigation in the Sustainability Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    14. Funk, Bryana & Amer, Saud A. & Ward, Frank A., 2023. "Sustainable aquifer management for food security," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    15. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Kishore, Prabhat & Singh, Dharam R. & Srivastava, Shivendra & Kumar, Arun & Prakash, 2021. "Food-Groundwater-Energy nexus in Indian agriculture: Empirical evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," 2021 ASAE 10th International Conference (Virtual), January 11-13, Beijing, China 329408, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    17. Michael O'Donnell & Robert P. Berrens, 2018. "Understanding Falling Municipal Water Demand in a Small City Dependent on the Declining Ogallala Aquifer: Case Study of Clovis, New Mexico," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-40, October.
    18. R. Aaron Hrozencik & Jordan F. Suter & Paul J. Ferraro & Nathan Hendricks, 2024. "Social comparisons and groundwater use: Evidence from Colorado and Kansas," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 946-966, March.
    19. Zunaira Asif & Zhi Chen & Rehan Sadiq & Yinying Zhu, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Sustainable Water Management Strategies in North America," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2771-2786, May.

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