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Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110

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  • Steward, David R.
  • Allen, Andrew J.

Abstract

Peak groundwater depletion from overtapping aquifers beyond recharge rates occurs as the depletion rate increases until a peak occurs followed by a decreasing trend as pumping equilibrates towards available recharge. The logistic equation of Hubbert's study of peak oil is used to project measurements at a set of observation wells, which provide estimates of saturated thickness and changes in groundwater storage from 1930 to 2110. The annual rate of depletion in High Plains Aquifer of the central USA is estimated to have peaked at 8.25×109m3/yr in 2006 followed by projected decreases to 4.0×109m3/yr in 2110. The timing of peaks follows a south–north progression, with peaks occurs in 1999 for Texas, 2002 for New Mexico, 2010 for Kansas, 2012 for Oklahoma and 2023 for Colorado; peaks do not occur before 2110 for Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming. The manifestation of peak groundwater depletion contributes towards the more comprehensive understanding necessary to assess potential vulnerabilities in the water-food nexus posed by aquifer depletion.

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  • Steward, David R. & Allen, Andrew J., 2016. "Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 36-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:170:y:2016:i:c:p:36-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.10.003
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    9. Perez-Quesada, Gabriela & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Steward, David R., 2020. "Quantifying the economic costs of High Plains Aquifer depletion," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ali Ajaz & Sumon Datta & Scott Stoodley, 2020. "High Plains Aquifer–State of Affairs of Irrigated Agriculture and Role of Irrigation in the Sustainability Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
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    12. Zunaira Asif & Zhi Chen & Rehan Sadiq & Yinying Zhu, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Sustainable Water Management Strategies in North America," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2771-2786, May.
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    14. Kishore, Prabhat & Singh, Dharm Raj & Srivastava, Shivendra & Kumar, Pramod & Jha, Girish Kumar, 2021. "Impact of Subsoil Water Preservation Act, 2009 on Burgeoning Trend of Groundwater Depletion in Punjab, India," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315198, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    17. Sadia A. Jame & Laura C. Bowling, 2020. "Groundwater Doctrine and Water Withdrawals in the United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4037-4052, October.
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    19. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).

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