IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v61y2013icp479-490.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model

Author

Listed:
  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
  • Kim, Sonny
  • Smith, Steven J.
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Yuyu, Zhou
  • Kyle, Page
  • Patel, Pralit

Abstract

Integrated assessment models have been extensively used to examine long term energy and greenhouse emissions trajectories, but these models have rarely been examined with respect to their ability to capture historical dynamics. We evaluate the USA buildings component of the Global Change Assessment Model by calibrating the model for 1990 and running forward to 2095. Results for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 are compared to historical estimates at the level of fuel, service, and US states. We highlight that the creation of a historical evaluation dataset is one of the foremost challenges in the evaluation process. This model set-up matches the reported growth of residential floorspace but slightly overestimates heating service demand and underestimates the growth in miscellaneous plug loads. While cooling service appears to be underestimated in 2005, we find little evidence for a systematic bias for other years. The apparently rapid growth of some demands in the commercial sector was also not captured. While these differences carry through into future projections, the overall character of these projections is not changed. These results highlight the difficulty of determining the relationship between energy service demand, which is an unobserved variable, and its drivers when there is limited historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Kim, Sonny & Smith, Steven J. & Clarke, Leon & Yuyu, Zhou & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2013. "Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-490.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:479-490
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.08.061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213007500
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.08.061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Ruijven, Bas & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., 2010. "A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 269-282.
    2. Bollen, Johannes & Hers, Sebastiaan & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2010. "An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4021-4030, August.
    3. Blanford, Geoffrey J. & Rose, Steven K. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 284-292.
    4. Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Weyant, John & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 293-305.
    5. Page Kyle & Leon Clarke & Fang Rong & Steven J. Smith, 2010. "Climate Policy and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 145-172.
    6. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    7. Cantore, Nicola, 2011. "Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2919-2924, May.
    8. Clarke, John F. & Edmonds, J. A., 1993. "Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 123-129, April.
    9. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    10. Yuyu Zhou & Jiyong Eom & Leon Clarke, 2013. "The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 979-992, August.
    11. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    12. Hojjati, Behjat & Wade, Steven H., 2012. "U.S. household energy consumption and intensity trends: A decomposition approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 304-314.
    13. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Clarke, Leon & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2012. "What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 261-271.
    14. Edmonds, James & Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall, 2012. "Energy and technology lessons since Rio," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glotin, David & Bourgeois, Cyril & Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Quirion, Philippe, 2019. "Prediction is difficult, even when it's about the past: A hindcast experiment using Res-IRF, an integrated energy-economy model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    2. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Kim, Son H., 2015. "Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 176-185.
    3. Charlie Wilson & Céline Guivarch & Elmar Kriegler & Bas Ruijven & Detlef P. Vuuren & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Erica L. Thompson, 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Lanham, Christopher M. & Brozynski, Max T. & Vázquez-Canteli, José R. & Castejón, Nicolás Castillo & Nagy, Zoltan, 2018. "Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1311-1325.
    5. Li, Wenliang & Zhou, Yuyu & Cetin, Kristen & Eom, Jiyong & Wang, Yu & Chen, Gang & Zhang, Xuesong, 2017. "Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2445-2457.
    6. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    7. Seungho Jeon & Minyoung Roh & Jaeick Oh & Suduk Kim, 2020. "Development of an Integrated Assessment Model at Provincial Level: GCAM-Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    8. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    2. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    3. Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian & Fontalvo, Javier & Martí-Herrero, Jaime & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2022. "Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Zhou, Yuyu & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 284-297.
    5. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, James & Calvin, Katherine & Kyle, Page, 2014. "Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 267-278.
    6. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 626-639.
    7. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    8. James McFarland & Yuyu Zhou & Leon Clarke & Patrick Sullivan & Jesse Colman & Wendy Jaglom & Michelle Colley & Pralit Patel & Jiyon Eom & Son Kim & G. Kyle & Peter Schultz & Boddu Venkatesh & Juanita , 2015. "Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 111-125, July.
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    10. Levesque, Antoine & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Baumstark, Lavinia & De Stercke, Simon & Grübler, Arnulf & Luderer, Gunnar, 2018. "How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 514-527.
    11. Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Marten, Elke Hodson & Horowitz, Russell & Kyle, Page & Link, Robert & Mignone, Bryan K. & Mundra, Anupriya & Zhou, Yuyu, 2018. "Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 667-677.
    12. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    13. Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Weyant, John & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 293-305.
    14. Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Yu & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A., 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China’s power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 22-30.
    15. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    16. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    17. Hartin, Corinne & Link, Robert & Patel, Pralit & Mundra, Anupriya & Horowitz, Russell & Dorheim, Kalyn & Clarke, Leon, 2021. "Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Francesco Bosello & Carlo Orecchia & David A. Raitzer, 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," Working Papers 2016.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Yu, Sha & Tan, Qing & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Vu, Linh & Patel, Pralit L., 2017. "Improving building energy efficiency in India: State-level analysis of building energy efficiency policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 331-341.
    20. Blanford, Geoffrey J. & Rose, Steven K. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 284-292.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:479-490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.