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Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

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  • Krey, Volker
  • Martinsen, Dag
  • Wagner, Hermann-Josef

Abstract

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Krey, Volker & Martinsen, Dag & Wagner, Hermann-Josef, 2007. "Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2340-2349.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:12:p:2340-2349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.013
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