IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v32y2007i8p1381-1402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the impact on cost and electricity production of high penetration levels of intermittent electricity in OECD Europe and the USA, results for wind energy

Author

Listed:
  • Hoogwijk, Monique
  • van Vuuren, Detlef
  • de Vries, Bert
  • Turkenburg, Wim

Abstract

In this study we explore for the USA and OECD Europe (OECD Europe includes the countries that participate in the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, among which Western Europe, USA and Japan) dynamic changes in electricity production, cost and CO2 emissions when intermittent electricity sources are used with increasing penetration levels. The methodology developed can be applied for both solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy. Here the focus of the results is on penetration of wind electricity in the electricity system as simulated in a long-term model experiment in which the electricity demand is kept constant over time. All important parameter are included in a sensitivity analysis. With increasing penetration levels the cost reduction of wind electricity caused by upscaling and technological learning is counteracted by the cost increase due to (1) the need for additional back-up capacity, (2) the need to generate wind electricity at less favourable sites, and (3) discarded wind electricity because of supply–demand mismatch. This occurs after about 20% wind electricity production as percentage of current electricity production. At this level about 500 (OECD Europe) and 750 (USA) TWhyr−1 wind electricity is absorbed in the system with the electricity demand of the year 2000. Wind electricity is found to be discarded when the production is about 55 (USA) to 10 times (OECD Europe) the present electricity produced from wind power. Beyond 30% of present electricity production, cost increases most significantly because of discarded wind electricity, excluding storage. In both regions the use of wind electricity would mainly avoid use of natural gas. The CO2 emissions abatement costs range from 14 (OECD Europe) to 33 (USA) $ per ton CO2 differ in both regions due to a faster wind electricity cost increase in OECD Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoogwijk, Monique & van Vuuren, Detlef & de Vries, Bert & Turkenburg, Wim, 2007. "Exploring the impact on cost and electricity production of high penetration levels of intermittent electricity in OECD Europe and the USA, results for wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1381-1402.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:8:p:1381-1402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2006.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544206002544
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2006.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    2. Hoogwijk, Monique & de Vries, Bert & Turkenburg, Wim, 2004. "Assessment of the global and regional geographical, technical and economic potential of onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 889-919, September.
    3. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
    4. Brower, Michael C. & Tennis, Michael W., 1995. "Catching a steady breeze: Putting wind power to work on electric utility systems," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 32-41, March.
    5. C. Harmon, 2000. "Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology," Working Papers ir00014, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. Sims, Ralph E. H. & Rogner, Hans-Holger & Gregory, Ken, 2003. "Carbon emission and mitigation cost comparisons between fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable energy resources for electricity generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(13), pages 1315-1326, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2017. "Scaling of wind energy variability over space and time," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 572-585.
    2. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    3. Cany, Camille & Mansilla, Christine & da Costa, Pascal & Mathonnière, Gilles & Duquesnoy, Thierry & Baschwitz, Anne, 2016. "Nuclear and intermittent renewables: Two compatible supply options? The case of the French power mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 135-146.
    4. Carraro, Carlo & Tavoni, Massimo & Longden, Thomas & Marangoni, Giacomo, 2013. "The Optimal Energy Mix in Power Generation and the Contribution from Natural Gas in Reducing Carbon Emissions to 2030 and Beyon," CEPR Discussion Papers 9715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Abrell, Jan & Weigt, Hannes, 2008. "The Interaction of Emissions Trading and Renewable Energy Promotion," MPRA Paper 65658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Germany's wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1857-1863, October.
    7. Alessandro Franco & Pasquale Salza, 2011. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Perspectives for the long-term penetration of new renewables in complex energy systems: the Italian scenario," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 309-330, April.
    8. Hong, Sanghyun & Bradshaw, Corey J.A. & Brook, Barry W., 2014. "Nuclear power can reduce emissions and maintain a strong economy: Rating Australia’s optimal future electricity-generation mix by technologies and policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 712-725.
    9. Carrara, Samuel & Marangoni, Giacomo, 2017. "Including system integration of variable renewable energies in a constant elasticity of substitution framework: The case of the WITCH model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 612-626.
    10. Enrica Cian & Samuel Carrara & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 637-650, April.
    11. Leijon, Mats & Skoglund, Annika & Waters, Rafael & Rehn, Alf & Lindahl, Marcus, 2010. "On the physics of power, energy and economics of renewable electric energy sources – Part I," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1729-1734.
    12. Skoglund, Annika & Leijon, Mats & Rehn, Alf & Lindahl, Marcus & Waters, Rafael, 2010. "On the physics of power, energy and economics of renewable electric energy sources - Part II," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1735-1740.
    13. Franco, Alessandro & Salza, Pasquale, 2011. "Strategies for optimal penetration of intermittent renewables in complex energy systems based on techno-operational objectives," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 743-753.
    14. Lenzen, Manfred & McBain, Bonnie & Trainer, Ted & Jütte, Silke & Rey-Lescure, Olivier & Huang, Jing, 2016. "Simulating low-carbon electricity supply for Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 553-564.
    15. Manfred Lenzen & Roberto Schaeffer, 2012. "Historical and potential future contributions of power technologies to global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 601-632, June.
    16. Connolly, D. & MacLaughlin, S. & Leahy, M., 2010. "Development of a computer program to locate potential sites for pumped hydroelectric energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 375-381.
    17. Gürsan, C. & de Gooyert, V., 2021. "The systemic impact of a transition fuel: Does natural gas help or hinder the energy transition?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Rehman, Shafiqur & Al-Hadhrami, Luai M. & Alam, Md. Mahbub, 2015. "Pumped hydro energy storage system: A technological review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 586-598.
    19. Gómez, Antonio & Zubizarreta, Javier & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2011. "Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1973-1985.
    20. de Boer, Harmen Sytze (H.S.) & van Vuuren, Detlef (D.P.), 2017. "Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 600-611.
    21. Soares M.C. Borba, Bruno & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2012. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a way to maximize the integration of variable renewable energy in power systems: The case of wind generation in northeastern Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 469-481.
    22. Kusiak, Andrew & Zheng, Haiyang, 2010. "Optimization of wind turbine energy and power factor with an evolutionary computation algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1324-1332.
    23. Jiang, Wenchun & Fan, Qinshan & Gong, Jianming, 2010. "Optimization of welding joint between tower and bottom flange based on residual stress considerations in a wind turbine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 461-467.
    24. Mason, I.G. & Page, S.C. & Williamson, A.G., 2010. "A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3973-3984, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Vries, Bert J.M. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique M., 2007. "Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2590-2610, April.
    2. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    3. Gregory F. Nemet, 2006. "How well does Learning-by-doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-free Energy Technology?," Working Papers 2006.143, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Brandt, Urs Steiner & Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard, 2006. "Climate change negotiations and first-mover advantages: the case of the wind turbine industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1175-1184, July.
    5. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
    6. Xu, Mei & Xie, Pu & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2020. "Study of China's optimal solar photovoltaic power development path to 2050," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    8. Lehmann, Paul, 2009. "Climate policies with pollution externalities and learning spillovers," UFZ Discussion Papers 10/2009, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    9. Rout, Ullash K. & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models--a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2814-2830, July.
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Grazzi, Marco & Mathew, Nanditha, 2017. "The cost-quantity relations and the diverse patterns of “learning by doing”: Evidence from India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1873-1886.
    11. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, Kim J. & Tamba, Marie, 2017. "The Importance of Learning for Achieving the UK's Targets for Offshore Wind," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 259-268.
    12. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2021. "Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    13. Pettersson, Fredrik & Söderholm, Patrik, 2009. "The diffusion of renewable electricity in the presence of climate policy and technology learning: The case of Sweden," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2031-2040, October.
    14. Barreto, Leonardo & Kypreos, Socrates, 2004. "Emissions trading and technology deployment in an energy-systems "bottom-up" model with technology learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 243-261, October.
    15. Weiss, Martin & Dittmar, Lars & Junginger, Martin & Patel, Martin K. & Blok, Kornelis, 2009. "Market diffusion, technological learning, and cost-benefit dynamics of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2962-2976, August.
    16. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    17. Blanco, María Isabel, 2009. "The economics of wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1372-1382, August.
    18. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Karali, Nihan & ArIkan, YIldIz, 2008. "CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2694-2708, July.
    19. Kyunam Kim & Eunnyeong Heo & Yeonbae Kim, 2017. "Dynamic Policy Impacts on a Technological-Change System of Renewable Energy: An Empirical Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 205-236, February.
    20. Lehmann, Paul, 2013. "Supplementing an emissions tax by a feed-in tariff for renewable electricity to address learning spillovers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 635-641.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intermittency; Wind energy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:8:p:1381-1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.