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Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil

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  • Robèrt, Markus
  • Hultén, Per
  • Frostell, Björn

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the potential for a full transition to domestically produced biofuels in the Stockholm County transport system in 2030, without exceeding the proportional share of national bioenergy assets. This target is chosen in order to test the potential of biofuel assets in Sweden, facilitating the transition to renewable fuel systems, and to display the potential of transport energy demand at macrolevel under tighter conditions on the energy market after fossil oil production has peaked. The distribution of bioenergy to the transport sector, including conversion losses and relationships to other energy sectors, is analysed explicitly. State-of-the-art traffic forecasting models, complemented with a specially designed energy quantification model, are applied to assess energy quantities needed at different vehicle efficiency levels and mobility patterns. The purpose is not to determine the most energy-efficient transport system possible, or to forecast the optimal distribution of bioenergy set aside for the transport sector in the future. Rather, we try to visualise, at a more conceptual level, energy demand as dependent on principle transport strategies, future technological developments and a type of planning that takes technological interlinkages between evolving components into strategic account. This work highlights the importance of implementing both demand and supply-side policies in order to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in all energy sectors before making assessments of reasonable distributions of bioenergy between energy sectors and other biomass usage.

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  • Robèrt, Markus & Hultén, Per & Frostell, Björn, 2007. "Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2089-2098.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:11:p:2089-2098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.006
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    2. Lindfeldt, Erik G. & Saxe, Maria & Magnusson, Mimmi & Mohseni, Farzad, 2010. "Strategies for a road transport system based on renewable resources - The case of an import-independent Sweden in 2025," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1836-1845, June.
    3. Jutta Gutberlet & Torleif Bramryd & Michael Johansson, 2020. "Expansion of the Waste-Based Commodity Frontier: Insights from Sweden and Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Jian Chai & Shubin Wang & Shouyang Wang & Ju’e Guo, 2012. "Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Olsson, Linda & Hjalmarsson, Linnea & Wikström, Martina & Larsson, Mårten, 2015. "Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 72-82.

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