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Very short-term wind power forecasting considering static data: An improved transformer model

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  • Wang, Sen
  • Sun, Yonghui
  • Zhang, Wenjie
  • Chung, C.Y.
  • Srinivasan, Dipti

Abstract

The randomness and fluctuations in wind power generation present significant challenges for grid and wind farm dispatching. Accurate very short-term wind power forecasting (WPF) is therefore essential for the efficient operation of modern power systems. Data-driven models, such as Transformers, have demonstrated their effectiveness in WPF due to their ability to efficiently capture global features in long sequences. However, limited research has examined the impact of incorporating static data into WPF, which may limit forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a Temporal Fusion Transformer forecasting model to address this challenge. This approach employs static data as the input features for the model. The model includes feature selection through a variable selection network and employs a specialized temporal fusion decoder to learn effectively from these static features. The case results show that the results of the proposed model are more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods, reducing MAPE by at least 1.32%, RMSE by 0.0091, and improving R2 by 0.035 in case studies. Additionally, the model maintains a manageable computational burden, underscoring its practical applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Sen & Sun, Yonghui & Zhang, Wenjie & Chung, C.Y. & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2024. "Very short-term wind power forecasting considering static data: An improved transformer model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:312:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224033553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133577
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    References listed on IDEAS

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