Fast penetration of electric vehicles in China cannot achieve steep cuts in air emissions from road transport without synchronized renewable electricity expansion

Adopting electric vehicles (EVs) is considered to be a critical strategy to achieve China's goals of reducing air pollutant emissions and reaching carbon neutrality. However, the effects of different EV and renewable electricity (RE) expansion scenarios on air pollutants and carbon emissions from China's road transport have rarely been comprehensively assessed. This study developed a highly disaggregated provincial level inventory for CO, NOX, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and CO2 emissions from China's road transport in 2020, using a bottom-up approach that considered crucial technical factors such as vehicle type, fuel type and vehicle age. This inventory was then used as a basis to analyse future emissions trajectories up to 2050 under various provincial and regional level EV and electricity development pathways. The results suggest that without changing the current electricity generation mix, rapidly growing EVs could aggravate air pollution in China by increasing NOX, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 emissions. The Chinese government's current targets for EV market shares can help achieve peak road transport CO2 emissions around 2030. However, if RE expansion is slow, then the EV targets would achieve only limited CO2, NOX, and CO emission reduction while increasing SO2, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions.