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Joint Forecasting Method of Wind and Solar Outputs Considering Temporal and Spatial Correlation

Author

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  • Ziran Yuan

    (School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

  • Pengli Zhang

    (Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project Construction Co., Ltd., Xi’an 710024, China)

  • Bo Ming

    (School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

  • Xiaobo Zheng

    (School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

  • Lu Tian

    (School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

Abstract

In response to the problem of low forecasting accuracy in wind and solar power outputs, this study proposes a joint forecasting method for wind and solar power outputs by using their spatiotemporal correlation. First, autocorrelation analysis and causal testing are used to screen the forecasting factors. Then, a convolutional neural network–long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) is constructed and trained to extract features effectively. Finally, the independent, ensemble, and joint forecasting effects are compared, using a certain clean energy base as the research object. Results show that the forecasting accuracy of the ensemble wind and solar power outputs is better than that of independent forecasting. The joint forecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy of wind power by 20% but slightly affects the forecasting accuracy of solar power.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziran Yuan & Pengli Zhang & Bo Ming & Xiaobo Zheng & Lu Tian, 2023. "Joint Forecasting Method of Wind and Solar Outputs Considering Temporal and Spatial Correlation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:19:p:14628-:d:1256112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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