The many faces of heating transitions. Deeper understandings of future systems in Sweden and beyond

Swedish buildings require additional heating inputs for many months each year, much of which comes from district heating systems fed by fuel combustion, electrical devices and recycled heat sources; localised heating is also generated within individual buildings. Optimised projections using the EnergyPLAN model for a so-called “smart energy” scenario predict dramatic reductions in biomass use accompanied by increases in electricity, recycled heat and biogas. Electricity generation routes are also predicted to change, shifting away from nuclear and biomass sources towards wind, solar and biogas technologies. While such transitions are expected to lower greenhouse gas emissions, current assessment methods rarely examine the breadth of other environmental and material supply aspects at play. Here, a novel new approach provides deeper insights into current and future Swedish heating scenarios for 11 key indicators by considering heat production processes over their full life cycles. Results suggest that favourable reductions are likely in five of these indicators, but these benefits are offset by unfavourable outcomes in others, including all three raw material supply indicators. Ultimately, the study provides a novel example of ways in which additional tools can complement existing modelling techniques and expand the scope of available information used to assist heating transition decisions.