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A temporal distributed hybrid deep learning model for day-ahead distributed PV power forecasting

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  • Qu, Yinpeng
  • Xu, Jian
  • Sun, Yuanzhang
  • Liu, Dan

Abstract

In recent years, the integration of distributed photovoltaic has witnessed explosive growth because of its great economic and environmental benefits. However, the intermittence and randomicity of PV power generation are challenging the stable and economic operation of active distribution system, especially when the local historical and forecasting meteorological data are not available. Thus, this paper presents a novel Gated Recurrent Unit based hybrid model for forecasting distributed PV power generations. The proposed method uses locally historical PV power generation data to forecast one-day-ahead solar power time series with five-minute intervals. First, a linear components extraction method is proposed to identify the daily fluctuating patterns of the solar power series. Then, temporal distributed Gated Recurrent Unit models are developed based on the detected daily fluctuating patterns of the PV power generation. A scenarios generation algorithm is proposed to provide forecasting linear trend data for each Gated Recurrent Unit model. Finally, the daily linear series scenarios, the linear and nonlinear parts of the historical data are fed into the Gated Recurrent Unit to forecast the PV generation. Data collected from an actual distributed PV farm in southeastern China are utilized to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can provide a nominalized root mean square error of 6.83% and a nominalized mean absolute error of 4.12%. Compared to a single Gated Recurrent Unit forecasting model, the developed model has improved the forecasting accuracy by 62.7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Qu, Yinpeng & Xu, Jian & Sun, Yuanzhang & Liu, Dan, 2021. "A temporal distributed hybrid deep learning model for day-ahead distributed PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:304:y:2021:i:c:s030626192101059x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117704
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    11. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    12. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Elham M. Al-Ali & Yassine Hajji & Yahia Said & Manel Hleili & Amal M. Alanzi & Ali H. Laatar & Mohamed Atri, 2023. "Solar Energy Production Forecasting Based on a Hybrid CNN-LSTM-Transformer Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Yu, Hanxin & Chen, Shanlin & Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Ding, Yueming & Cui, Rongxi & Zhao, Xin, 2024. "Self-attention mechanism to enhance the generalizability of data-driven time-series prediction: A case study of intra-hour power forecasting of urban distributed photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    15. Zaohui Kang & Jizhong Xue & Chun Sing Lai & Yu Wang & Haoliang Yuan & Fangyuan Xu, 2023. "Vision Transformer-Based Photovoltaic Prediction Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-14, June.
    16. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    17. Xu, Lei & Wen, Yintang & Luo, Xiaoyuan & Lu, Zhigang & Guan, Xinping, 2022. "A modified power management algorithm with energy efficiency and GHG emissions limitation for hybrid power ship system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    18. Liu, Zhengguang & Guo, Zhiling & Chen, Qi & Song, Chenchen & Shang, Wenlong & Yuan, Meng & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "A review of data-driven smart building-integrated photovoltaic systems: Challenges and objectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    19. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2022. "Combining transfer learning and constrained long short-term memory for power generation forecasting of newly-constructed photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1062-1077.
    20. Mirza, Adeel Feroz & Shu, Zhaokun & Usman, Muhammad & Mansoor, Majad & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "Quantile-transformed multi-attention residual framework (QT-MARF) for medium-term PV and wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    21. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao, 2023. "A cascaded deep learning framework for photovoltaic power forecasting with multi-fidelity inputs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).

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