IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v266y2023ics0360544223000026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on heat consumption detection, restoration and prediction methods for discontinuous heating substation

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Ke
  • Lu, Shilei
  • Han, Zhao
  • Yuan, Jianjuan

Abstract

Under the goal of low-carbon heating, the control modes of heating substation will develop from traditional continuous heating to discontinuous heating, indicating that the existing methods for detection, restoration and prediction are not applicable. Based on data-knowledge analysis, this paper conducts a systematic study. Firstly, the associated parameters of the control mode were determined according to professional knowledge, including date, daily heat consumption and standard deviation, and the control mode of discontinuous heating substation was successfully identified by K-means. Secondary, by analyzing the internal heating parameters affecting the changing of heat consumption, the detection methods for different types of abnormal data are proposed. Thirdly, the restoration effect of statistics methods and Data-driven methods on abnormal data are compared, and data-driven methods with input parameters of secondary supply temperature, return temperature and temperature difference can successfully restore different abnormal heat consumption with an average error of less than 5%. Finally, the input parameters for heat consumption prediction of discontinuous heating stations, including outdoor temperature, time point and secondary return temperature were determined, and extreme gradient boosting had a higher prediction accuracy than support vector machine and multiple linear regression, with R2 >0.85.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Ke & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2023. "Research on heat consumption detection, restoration and prediction methods for discontinuous heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:266:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223000026
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223000026
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xue, Puning & Zhou, Zhigang & Fang, Xiumu & Chen, Xin & Liu, Lin & Liu, Yaowen & Liu, Jing, 2017. "Fault detection and operation optimization in district heating substations based on data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 926-940.
    2. Dalla Rosa, A. & Christensen, J.E., 2011. "Low-energy district heating in energy-efficient building areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 6890-6899.
    3. Molina-Solana, Miguel & Ros, María & Ruiz, M. Dolores & Gómez-Romero, Juan & Martin-Bautista, M.J., 2017. "Data science for building energy management: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 598-609.
    4. Himeur, Yassine & Ghanem, Khalida & Alsalemi, Abdullah & Bensaali, Faycal & Amira, Abbes, 2021. "Artificial intelligence based anomaly detection of energy consumption in buildings: A review, current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    5. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhang, Ji & Deng, Na & Zhou, Zhihua & Gao, Feng, 2020. "Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Hu, Jianming & Luo, Qingxi & Tang, Jingwei & Heng, Jiani & Deng, Yuwen, 2022. "Conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks for wind power interval forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    7. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Dong, Mi & Sun, Mingren & Song, Dongran & Huang, Liansheng & Yang, Jian & Joo, Young Hoon, 2022. "Real-time detection of wind power abnormal data based on semi-supervised learning Robust Random Cut Forest," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    9. Li, Kehua & Yang, Rebecca Jing & Robinson, Duane & Ma, Jun & Ma, Zhenjun, 2019. "An agglomerative hierarchical clustering-based strategy using Shared Nearest Neighbours and multiple dissimilarity measures to identify typical daily electricity usage profiles of university library b," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 735-748.
    10. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Wang, Shengwei, 2014. "Development of prediction models for next-day building energy consumption and peak power demand using data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Zhou, Zhihua & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "A new feedback predictive model for improving the operation efficiency of heating station based on indoor temperature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Tang, Huajie & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Zhang, Ji & Sheng, Ying, 2020. "Identification heat user behavior for improving the accuracy of heating load prediction model based on wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Lund, Henrik & Werner, Sven & Wiltshire, Robin & Svendsen, Svend & Thorsen, Jan Eric & Hvelplund, Frede & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2014. "4th Generation District Heating (4GDH)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Zhang, Qiang & Tian, Zhe & Ma, Zhijun & Li, Genyan & Lu, Yakai & Niu, Jide, 2020. "Development of the heating load prediction model for the residential building of district heating based on model calibration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    18. Zhang, Chaobo & Xue, Xue & Zhao, Yang & Zhang, Xuejun & Li, Tingting, 2019. "An improved association rule mining-based method for revealing operational problems of building heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Chunhua & Yuan, Lingyu & Cao, Shanshan & Xia, Guoqiang & Liu, Yanan & Wu, Xiangdong, 2023. "Identifying supply-demand mismatches in district heating system based on association rule mining," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Evaluation of the operation data for improving the prediction accuracy of heating parameters in heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    2. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Lu, Shilei & Zhang, Ji & Han, Zhao & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Analysis of influencing factors on heat consumption of large residential buildings with different occupancy rates-Tianjin case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    3. Huang, Ke & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Zheng, Xuejing, 2022. "Analysis and evaluation of heat source data of large-scale heating system based on descriptive data mining techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    4. Sun, Chunhua & Yuan, Lingyu & Cao, Shanshan & Xia, Guoqiang & Liu, Yanan & Wu, Xiangdong, 2023. "Identifying supply-demand mismatches in district heating system based on association rule mining," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    5. Ling, Jihong & Zhang, Bingyang & Dai, Na & Xing, Jincheng, 2023. "Coupling input feature construction methods and machine learning algorithms for hourly secondary supply temperature prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. Zhang, Yunfei & Zhou, Zhihua & Liu, Junwei & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2022. "Data augmentation for improving heating load prediction of heating substation based on TimeGAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Hong, Yejin & Yoon, Sungmin, 2022. "Holistic Operational Signatures for an energy-efficient district heating substation in buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    9. Zhang, Yunfei & Zhou, Zhihua & Du, Yahui & Shen, Jun & Li, Zhenxing & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2023. "A data transfer method based on one dimensional convolutional neural network for cross-building load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Kim, Ryunhee & Hong, Yejin & Choi, Youngwoong & Yoon, Sungmin, 2021. "System-level fouling detection of district heating substations using virtual-sensor-assisted building automation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Persson, Urban & Wiechers, Eva & Möller, Bernd & Werner, Sven, 2019. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Heat distribution costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 604-622.
    12. Michael-Allan Millar & Bruce Elrick & Greg Jones & Zhibin Yu & Neil M. Burnside, 2020. "Roadblocks to Low Temperature District Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Rämä, Miika & Wahlroos, Mikko, 2018. "Introduction of new decentralised renewable heat supply in an existing district heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 68-79.
    14. Soheil Kavian & Mohsen Saffari Pour & Ali Hakkaki-Fard, 2019. "Optimized Design of the District Heating System by Considering the Techno-Economic Aspects and Future Weather Projection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-30, May.
    15. Sara Månsson & Kristin Davidsson & Patrick Lauenburg & Marcus Thern, 2018. "Automated Statistical Methods for Fault Detection in District Heating Customer Installations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    17. Yuwen You & Zhonghua Wang & Zhihao Liu & Chunmei Guo & Bin Yang, 2024. "Load Prediction of Regional Heat Exchange Station Based on Fuzzy Clustering Based on Fourier Distance and Convolutional Neural Network–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Zhao, Yin & Gong, Mingju & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Jing, Lei & Li, Bo & Zhao, Zhixuan, 2023. "A new hybrid optimization prediction strategy based on SH-Informer for district heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    19. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    20. Månsson, Sara & Johansson Kallioniemi, Per-Olof & Thern, Marcus & Van Oevelen, Tijs & Sernhed, Kerstin, 2019. "Faults in district heating customer installations and ways to approach them: Experiences from Swedish utilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 163-174.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:266:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223000026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.