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Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment

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  • Kat, Bora
  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Yuan, Mei

Abstract

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, Turkey pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 21% by 2030 relative to business-as-usual (BAU). We expect that fulfilling this pledge will likely require a reduced reliance on fossil-based energy and additional investments in low-carbon energy sources. To fully assess these impacts, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Turkish economy that combines macroeconomic representation of non-electric sectors with a detailed power sector representation. We analyze several scenarios to assess the impact of an emission trading scheme: one including the planned nuclear development and a renewable subsidy scheme (BAU), and another with no nuclear technology allowed (NoN). Our assessment shows that in 2030, without policy, primary energy will be mainly oil, natural gas and coal. Under an emission trading scheme, however, coal-fired power generation vanishes by 2030 in both BAU and NoN due to the high cost of carbon. With nuclear (BAU), GHG emissions are 3.1% lower than NoN due to the resulting energy mix, allowing for a lower carbon price ($50/tCO2 in BAU compared to $70/tCO2 in NoN). Our results suggest that fulfillment of Turkey's pledge may be possible at a modest economic cost of about 0.8–1% by 2030.

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  • Kat, Bora & Paltsev, Sergey & Yuan, Mei, 2018. "Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 84-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:122:y:2018:i:c:p:84-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.030
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    3. Liu, Lirong & Huang, Guohe & Baetz, Brian & Zhang, Kaiqiang, 2018. "Environmentally-extended input-output simulation for analyzing production-based and consumption-based industrial greenhouse gas mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 69-78.
    4. Diniz, Tiago B. & Caiado Couto, Lilia, 2024. "Achieving a high share of non-hydro renewable integration in Brazil through wind power: Regional growth and employment effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Kat, Bora, 2023. "Clean energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Alkan, Ayla & Oğuş-Binatlı, Ayla, 2021. "Is Production or Consumption the Determiner? Sources of Turkey’s CO2 Emissions between 1990-2015 and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 111635, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2021.
    7. Mardones, Cristian & Ortega, José, 2021. "Are the emissions trading systems’ simulations generated with a computable general equilibrium model sensitive to the nested production structure?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    8. Isik, Mine & Sarica, Kemal & Ari, Izzet, 2020. "Driving forces of Turkey's transportation sector CO2 emissions: An LMDI approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 210-219.
    9. Erisa Dautaj Şenerdem & K. Ali Akkemik, 2020. "Evaluation of the reform in the Turkish electricity sector: a CGE analysis," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 389-419, August.
    10. Sevil Acar & Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2022. "Potential effects of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism on the Turkish economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8162-8194, June.
    11. Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra & Coit, D.W. & Felder, F.A., 2023. "Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Gungor, Gorkem & Sari, Ramazan, 2022. "Nuclear power and climate policy integration in developed and developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Kat, B. & Şahin, Ü. & Teimourzadeh, S. & Tör, O.B. & Voyvoda, E. & Yeldan, A.E., 2024. "A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    14. Zhang, Yun-Long & Kang, Jia-Ning & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2024. "Unveiling the evolution and future prospects: A comprehensive review of low-carbon transition in the coal power industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).

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