IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v218y2021ics0360544220325287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar energy for sustainable heating and cooling energy system planning in arid climates

Author

Listed:
  • Noorollahi, Younes
  • Golshanfard, Aminabbas
  • Ansaripour, Shiva
  • Khaledi, Arian
  • Shadi, Mehdi

Abstract

Despite the high potential of renewable energy sources in Iran, the current energy system in the country is highly dependent on fossil fuel resources because the abundance of oil and gas resources in the country has made it less feasible to harvest renewable energy. Nowadays, climate change and the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions have led to measures such as determining CO2 taxes that make renewable-based energy systems more profitable. Southern Iran, with its arid climate, has a high potential for the integration of solar energy into the existing energy system in order to maximize its share on the energy system; therefore, in this research, five scenarios were defined and applied to model the energy system for 2025 and 2030. Each scenario was assumed to maximize the solar energy share for the supply of heating, cooling, and electricity demand, such as photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP). The bottom up EnergyPLAN was applied to model the energy system and scenario computations. The results of the scenarios were compared based on annual CO2 emissions, costs, total primary energy supply, and critical excess electricity production. Based on the results, all scenarios were able to reduce the CO2 emissions; however, the PV based scenario had the least costs and utilized 1954 MW of PV power plant to supply the demand with 599 M€/year costs. Natural gas was largest energy resource of the system; due to the 17% reduction in the total primary energy supply compared to BAU and Best Scenario (S5) for 2030, about 20 TWh/year of the natural gas was saved and was ready for export. According to the Paris Agreement, the permissible amount of CO2 emissions for this province in 2030 is about 9.76 Mt, which is 5.59 Mt in Best Scenario (S5). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was run for the costs of the business as usual and PV based scenarios under different natural gas prices and emissions tax rates from 0.025 to 1.92 €/Gj and 4 to 20 €/kg of CO2, respectively. According to the findings, when the natural gas price increased to 0.521 €/Gj, the renewable-based plans became feasible, and increasing the CO2 tax caused the cost differences to rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Noorollahi, Younes & Golshanfard, Aminabbas & Ansaripour, Shiva & Khaledi, Arian & Shadi, Mehdi, 2021. "Solar energy for sustainable heating and cooling energy system planning in arid climates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:218:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220325287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220325287
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119421?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiwan, Suhil & Al-Gharibeh, Elyasa, 2020. "Jordan toward a 100% renewable electricity system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 423-436.
    2. Ehsan, Ali & Yang, Qiang, 2019. "Scenario-based investment planning of isolated multi-energy microgrids considering electricity, heating and cooling demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1277-1288.
    3. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    4. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    5. Michael Child & Alexander Nordling & Christian Breyer, 2018. "The Impacts of High V2G Participation in a 100% Renewable Åland Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6686-6696.
    7. Li, Bing-Bing & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wang, Jin-Cheng, 2015. "A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1671-1683.
    8. Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
    9. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    10. Fernandes, Liliana & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Renewable energy scenarios in the Portuguese electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 51-57.
    11. Dominković, D.F. & Bačeković, I. & Ćosić, B. & Krajačić, G. & Pukšec, T. & Duić, N. & Markovska, N., 2016. "Zero carbon energy system of South East Europe in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1517-1528.
    12. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
    13. Noorollahi, Younes & Gholami Arjenaki, Hamidreza & Ghasempour, Roghayeh, 2017. "Thermo-economic modeling and GIS-based spatial data analysis of ground source heat pump systems for regional shallow geothermal mapping," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 648-660.
    14. Ferrari, Simone & Zagarella, Federica & Caputo, Paola & Bonomolo, Marina, 2019. "Assessment of tools for urban energy planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 544-551.
    15. Zhu, L. & Li, M.S. & Wu, Q.H. & Jiang, L., 2015. "Short-term natural gas demand prediction based on support vector regression with false neighbours filtered," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 428-436.
    16. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    17. Chia, Yen Yee & Lee, Lam Hong & Shafiabady, Niusha & Isa, Dino, 2015. "A load predictive energy management system for supercapacitor-battery hybrid energy storage system in solar application using the Support Vector Machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 588-602.
    18. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    19. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula, 2018. "Planning for a renewable future in the Brazilian power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 496-511.
    20. Markovska, N. & Taseska, V. & Pop-Jordanov, J., 2009. "SWOT analyses of the national energy sector for sustainable energy development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 752-756.
    21. Parajuli, Ranjan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Dalgaard, Tommy & Pokharel, Govind Raj, 2014. "Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 432-444.
    22. Sheikh, Munawar A., 2010. "Energy and renewable energy scenario of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 354-363, January.
    23. Groppi, D. & Astiaso Garcia, D. & Lo Basso, G. & De Santoli, L., 2019. "Synergy between smart energy systems simulation tools for greening small Mediterranean islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 515-524.
    24. Berardi, Umberto & Jafarpur, Pouriya, 2020. "Assessing the impact of climate change on building heating and cooling energy demand in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    25. Ghasemi, Golara & Noorollahi, Younes & Alavi, Hamed & Marzband, Mousa & Shahbazi, Mahmoud, 2019. "Theoretical and technical potential evaluation of solar power generation in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1250-1261.
    26. Lund, H. & Möller, B. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Dyrelund, A., 2010. "The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1381-1390.
    27. Alamdari, Pouria & Nematollahi, Omid & Alemrajabi, Ali Akbar, 2013. "Solar energy potentials in Iran: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 778-788.
    28. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vrînceanu, Alexandra & Dumitrașcu, Monica & Kucsicsa, Gheorghe, 2022. "Site suitability for photovoltaic farms and current investment in Romania," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 320-330.
    2. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Zhang, Haihua & Tao, Yao & Zhang, Guomin & Li, Jie & Setunge, Sujeeva & Shi, Long, 2022. "Impacts of storey number of buildings on solar chimney performance: A theoretical and numerical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    4. Hossein Yousefi & Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad & Armin Ghodrati, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Khalili, Reza & Khaledi, Arian & Marzband, Mousa & Nematollahi, Amin Foroughi & Vahidi, Behrooz & Siano, Pierluigi, 2023. "Robust multi-objective optimization for the Iranian electricity market considering green hydrogen and analyzing the performance of different demand response programs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    6. Li, Zeyun & Kuo, Yen-Ku & Mahmud, Abdul Rahman & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Haffar, Mohamed & Muda, Iskandar, 2022. "Integration of renewable energy, environmental policy stringency, and climate technologies in realizing environmental sustainability: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1376-1384.
    7. Izanloo, Milad & Noorollahi, Younes & Aslani, Alireza, 2021. "Future energy planning to maximize renewable energy share for the south Caspian Sea climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 660-675.
    8. Okonkwo, Eric C. & Wole-Osho, Ifeoluwa & Bamisile, Olusola & Abid, Muhammad & Al-Ansari, Tareq, 2021. "Grid integration of renewable energy in Qatar: Potentials and limitations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Esteban A. Soto & Andrea Hernandez-Guzman & Alexander Vizcarrondo-Ortega & Amaya McNealey & Lisa B. Bosman, 2022. "Solar Energy Implementation for Health-Care Facilities in Developing and Underdeveloped Countries: Overview, Opportunities, and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Noorollahi, Younes & Golshanfard, Aminabbas & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed, 2022. "A scenario-based approach for optimal operation of energy hub under different schemes and structures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    11. Zhou, Yuan & Wang, Jiangjiang & Li, Yuxin & Wei, Changqi, 2023. "A collaborative management strategy for multi-objective optimization of sustainable distributed energy system considering cloud energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    3. Luo, Shihua & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Zhang, Zhenyuan & Bai, Chunguang & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe, 2022. "Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Chang, Miguel & Thellufsen, Jakob Zink & Zakeri, Behnam & Pickering, Bryn & Pfenninger, Stefan & Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2021. "Trends in tools and approaches for modelling the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Lopez, Gabriel & Aghahosseini, Arman & Child, Michael & Khalili, Siavash & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of model structure, framework, and flexibility on perspectives of 100% renewable energy transition decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Cozzini, Marco & Garegnani, Giulia & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Filippi Oberegger, Ulrich & Pernetti, Roberta & Vaccaro, Roberto & Sparber, Wolfram, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization algorithm coupled to EnergyPLAN software: The EPLANopt model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 213-221.
    7. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    8. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Connolly, David & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2017. "Smart energy and smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 556-565.
    9. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    10. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N. & Sorknæs, Peter, 2022. "The business-economic energy system modelling tool energyPRO," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    11. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Fanali, Lorenzo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Moser, David & Sparber, Wolfram, 2018. "Incorporating combined cycle gas turbine flexibility constraints and additional costs into the EPLANopt model: The Italian case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-43.
    12. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Haas, Jannik & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Synergies of electrical and sectoral integration: Analysing geographical multi-node scenarios with sector coupling variations for a transition towards a fully renewables-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    13. Lund, Henrik, 2018. "Renewable heating strategies and their consequences for storage and grid infrastructures comparing a smart grid to a smart energy systems approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 94-102.
    14. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "A smart energy system approach vs a non-integrated renewable energy system approach to designing a future energy system in Zagreb," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 824-837.
    15. Pastore, Lorenzo Mario & Lo Basso, Gianluigi & Cristiani, Laura & de Santoli, Livio, 2022. "Rising targets to 55% GHG emissions reduction – The smart energy systems approach for improving the Italian energy strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    16. Alves, M. & Segurado, R. & Costa, M., 2020. "On the road to 100% renewable energy systems in isolated islands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    17. Behnam Zakeri & Samuli Rinne & Sanna Syri, 2015. "Wind Integration into Energy Systems with a High Share of Nuclear Power—What Are the Compromises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, March.
    18. Icaza-Alvarez, Daniel & Jurado, Francisco & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Arevalo, Paúl, 2022. "Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the energy system into 100% renewable by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 199-220.
    19. Stefan N. Petrović & Oleksandr Diachuk & Roman Podolets & Andrii Semeniuk & Fabian Bühler & Rune Grandal & Mourad Boucenna & Olexandr Balyk, 2021. "Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    20. Matteo Giacomo Prina & Giampaolo Manzolini & David Moser & Roberto Vaccaro & Wolfram Sparber, 2020. "Multi-Objective Optimization Model EPLANopt for Energy Transition Analysis and Comparison with Climate-Change Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:218:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220325287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.