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Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan N. Petrović

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Oleksandr Diachuk

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Roman Podolets

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Andrii Semeniuk

    (Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Fabian Bühler

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Rune Grandal

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Mourad Boucenna

    (Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Olexandr Balyk

    (MaREI, The SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, T23 XE10 Cork, Ireland
    School of Engineering, University College Cork, T12 HW58 Cork, Ireland)

Abstract

This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan N. Petrović & Oleksandr Diachuk & Roman Podolets & Andrii Semeniuk & Fabian Bühler & Rune Grandal & Mourad Boucenna & Olexandr Balyk, 2021. "Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:22:p:7731-:d:681958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolf Gielen, 2022. "Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-6, April.

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