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Multi-year long-term load forecast for area distribution feeders based on selective sequence learning

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  • Dong, Ming
  • Shi, Jian
  • Shi, Qingxin

Abstract

Area feeder long-term load forecast (LTLF) is one of the most critical forecasting tasks in electric distribution utility companies. Cost effective system upgrades can only be planned out based on accurate feeder LTLF results. However, the commonly used top-down and bottom-up LTLF methods fail to combine area and feeder information and cannot effectively deal with component-level LTLF. The previous research effort on hybrid approach that aims to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches is very limited. The recent work only focuses on the forecast of the next one-year and uses a one-fit-all model for all area feeders. In response, this paper proposes a novel selective sequence learning method that can convert a multi-year LTLF problem to a multi-timestep sequence prediction problem. The model learns how to predict sequence values as well as the best-performing sequential configuration for each feeder. In addition, unsupervised learning is introduced to automatically group feeders based on load compositions ahead of learning to further enhance the performance. The proposed method was tested on an urban distribution system in Canada and compared with many conventional methods and the existing hybrid forecasting method. It achieves the best forecasting accuracy measured by three metrics AMAPE, RMSE and R-squared. It also proves the feasibility of applying sequence learning to multi-year component-level load forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Ming & Shi, Jian & Shi, Qingxin, 2020. "Multi-year long-term load forecast for area distribution feeders based on selective sequence learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:206:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220313165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118209
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