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A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Framework with an Attention-Based Encoder–Decoder Network Based on Seasonal and Trend Adjustment

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  • Zhaorui Meng

    (Electronic information school, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
    School of computer and information engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China)

  • Xianze Xu

    (Electronic information school, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

Abstract

Accurate electrical load forecasting plays an important role in power system operation. An effective load forecasting approach can improve the operation efficiency of a power system. This paper proposes the seasonal and trend adjustment attention encoder–decoder (STA–AED), a hybrid short-term load forecasting approach based on a multi-head attention encoder–decoder module with seasonal and trend adjustment. A seasonal and trend decomposing technique is used to preprocess the original electrical load data. Each decomposed datum is regressed to predict the future electric load value by utilizing the encoder–decoder network with the multi-head attention mechanism. With the multi-head attention mechanism, STA–AED can interpret the prediction results more effectively. A large number of experiments and extensive comparisons have been carried out with a load forecasting dataset from the United States. The proposed hybrid STA–AED model is superior to the other five counterpart models such as random forest, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), gated recurrent units (GRUs), Encoder–Decoder, and Encoder–Decoder with multi-head attention. The proposed hybrid model shows the best prediction accuracy in 14 out of 15 zones in terms of both root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaorui Meng & Xianze Xu, 2019. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Framework with an Attention-Based Encoder–Decoder Network Based on Seasonal and Trend Adjustment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4612-:d:294226
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