IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v148y2018icp716-727.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incorporating homeowners' preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Pei-Hao
  • Keppo, Ilkka
  • Strachan, Neil

Abstract

Hot water and space heating account for about 80% of total energy consumption in the residential sector in the UK. It is thus crucial to decarbonise residential heating to achieve UK's 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets. However, the decarbonisation transitions determined by most techno-economic energy system models might be too optimistic or misleading for relying on cost minimisation alone and not considering households' preferences for different heating technologies. This study thus proposes a novel framework to incorporate heterogeneous households' (HHs) preferences into the modelling process of the UK TIMES model. The incorporated preferences for HHs are based on a nationwide survey on homeowners' choices of heating technologies. Preference constraints are then applied to regulate the HHs' choices of heating technologies to reflect the survey results. Consequently, compared to the least-cost transition pathway, the preference-driven pathway adopts heating technologies gradually without abrupt increases of market shares. Heat pumps and electric heaters are deployed much less than in the cost optimal result. Extensive district heating using low-carbon fuels and conservation measures should thus be deployed to provide flexibility for decarbonisation. The proposed framework can also incorporate preferences for other energy consumption technologies and be applied to other linear programming-based energy system models.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Pei-Hao & Keppo, Ilkka & Strachan, Neil, 2018. "Incorporating homeowners' preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 716-727.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:716-727
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218301786
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.150?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scarpa, Riccardo & Willis, Ken, 2010. "Willingness-to-pay for renewable energy: Primary and discretionary choice of British households' for micro-generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 129-136, January.
    2. Cayla, Jean-Michel & Maïzi, Nadia, 2015. "Integrating household behavior and heterogeneity into the TIMES-Households model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 56-67.
    3. Mahapatra, Krushna & Gustavsson, Leif, 2009. "Influencing Swedish homeowners to adopt district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 144-154, February.
    4. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Homeowners' preferences for adopting innovative residential heating systems: A discrete choice analysis for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1271-1283.
    5. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Motivational factors influencing the homeowners’ decisions between residential heating systems: An empirical analysis for Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 221-233.
    6. Dodds, Paul E., 2014. "Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 358-369.
    7. Kannan, Ramachandran & Strachan, Neil, 2009. "Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 416-428, April.
    8. Singh, H. & Muetze, A. & Eames, P.C., 2010. "Factors influencing the uptake of heat pump technology by the UK domestic sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 873-878.
    9. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    10. Sopha, Bertha Maya & Klöckner, Christian A. & Skjevrak, Geir & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2010. "Norwegian households' perception of wood pellet stove compared to air-to-air heat pump and electric heating," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3744-3754, July.
    11. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    12. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Switching from fossil fuel to renewables in residential heating systems: An empirical study of homeowners' decisions in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 95-105.
    13. Dowson, Mark & Poole, Adam & Harrison, David & Susman, Gideon, 2012. "Domestic UK retrofit challenge: Barriers, incentives and current performance leading into the Green Deal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 294-305.
    14. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    15. Willis, Ken & Scarpa, Riccardo & Gilroy, Rose & Hamza, Neveen, 2011. "Renewable energy adoption in an ageing population: Heterogeneity in preferences for micro-generation technology adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6021-6029, October.
    16. Cayla, Jean-Michel & Maizi, Nadia & Marchand, Christophe, 2011. "The role of income in energy consumption behaviour: Evidence from French households data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7874-7883.
    17. Karytsas, Spyridon & Theodoropoulou, Helen, 2014. "Public awareness and willingness to adopt ground source heat pumps for domestic heating and cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 49-57.
    18. Mahapatra, Krushna & Gustavsson, Leif, 2008. "An adopter-centric approach to analyze the diffusion patterns of innovative residential heating systems in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 577-590, February.
    19. Decker, Thomas & Menrad, Klaus, 2015. "House owners' perceptions and factors influencing their choice of specific heating systems in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 150-161.
    20. Achtnicht, Martin, 2011. "Do environmental benefits matter? Evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2191-2200, September.
    21. Ruokamo, Enni, 2016. "Household preferences of hybrid home heating systems – A choice experiment application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 224-237.
    22. Braun, Frauke G., 2010. "Determinants of households' space heating type: A discrete choice analysis for German households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5493-5503, October.
    23. Blesl, Markus & Kober, Tom & Bruchof, David & Kuder, Ralf, 2010. "Effects of climate and energy policy related measures and targets on the future structure of the European energy system in 2020 and beyond," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6278-6292, October.
    24. Fais, Birgit & Sabio, Nagore & Strachan, Neil, 2016. "The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 699-712.
    25. Pye, Steve & Daly, Hannah, 2015. "Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 97-107.
    26. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.
    27. Mills, Bradford F. & Schleich, Joachim, 2009. "Profits or preferences? Assessing the adoption of residential solar thermal technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4145-4154, October.
    28. C. Wilson & A. Grubler & N. Bauer & V. Krey & K. Riahi, 2013. "Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 381-395, May.
    29. Claudy, Marius C. & Michelsen, Claus & O'Driscoll, Aidan, 2011. "The diffusion of microgeneration technologies - assessing the influence of perceived product characteristics on home owners' willingness to pay," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1459-1469, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sachs, Julia & Meng, Yiming & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "An agent-based model for energy investment decisions in the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 752-768.
    2. Peñaloza, Diego & Mata, Érika & Fransson, Nathalie & Fridén, Håkan & Samperio, Álvaro & Quijano, Ana & Cuneo, Alessandra, 2022. "Social and market acceptance of photovoltaic panels and heat pumps in Europe: A literature review and survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Fajardy, M. & Reiner, D M., 2020. "An overview of the electrification of residential and commercial heating and cooling and prospects for decarbonisation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20120, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Chen, Yi-kuang & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2021. "Impact of fossil-free decentralized heating on northern European renewable energy deployment and the power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Borge-Diez, David & Icaza, Daniel & Trujillo-Cueva, Diego Francisco & Açıkkalp, Emin, 2022. "Renewable energy driven heat pumps decarbonization potential in existing residential buildings: Roadmap and case study of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Knobloch, Florian & Pollitt, Hector & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Lewney, Richard & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2021. "FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Ma, Sining & Guo, Siyue & Zheng, Dingqian & Chang, Shiyan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "Roadmap towards clean and low carbon heating to 2035: A provincial analysis in northern China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain & Ringler, Claudia & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Eldidi, Hagar & Breisinger, Clemens & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2019. "Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1063-1073.
    9. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    10. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Lee, Hwarang & Eom, Jiyong & Cho, Cheolhung & Koo, Yoonmo, 2019. "A bottom-up model of industrial energy system with positive mathematical programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 679-690.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruokamo, Enni, 2016. "Household preferences of hybrid home heating systems – A choice experiment application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 224-237.
    2. Karytsas, Spyridon & Theodoropoulou, Helen, 2014. "Public awareness and willingness to adopt ground source heat pumps for domestic heating and cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 49-57.
    3. Hecher, Maria & Hatzl, Stefanie & Knoeri, Christof & Posch, Alfred, 2017. "The trigger matters: The decision-making process for heating systems in the residential building sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 288-306.
    4. Jingchao, Zhang & Kotani, Koji & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2018. "Public acceptance of environmentally friendly heating in Beijing: A case of a low temperature air source heat pump," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 75-85.
    5. Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2019. "Determining the factors of household energy transitions: A multi-domain study," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 54-75.
    6. Alisa Freyre & Stefano Cozza & Matthias Rüetschi & Meinrad Bürer & Marlyne Sahakian & Martin K. Patel, 2021. "How to Improve Effectiveness of Renewable Space Heating Programs by Better Understanding Homeowner—Installer Interactions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Karytsas, Spyridon & Polyzou, Olympia & Karytsas, Constantine, 2019. "Factors affecting willingness to adopt and willingness to pay for a residential hybrid system that provides heating/cooling and domestic hot water," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 591-603.
    8. Côté, Elizabeth & Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Cristian, 2023. "Preferences of homeowners for heat-pump leasing: Evidence from a choice experiment in France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    9. Chen, Qiu, 2021. "District or distributed space heating in rural residential sector? Empirical evidence from a discrete choice experiment in South China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    10. Strazzera, Elisabetta & Meleddu, Daniela & Contu, Davide & Fornara, Ferdinando, 2024. "Willingness to pay for innovative heating/cooling systems: A comprehensive appraisal of drivers and barriers to adoption in Ireland and Italy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Ortega-Izquierdo, Margarita & Paredes-Salvador, Andrés & Montoya-Rasero, Carlos, 2019. "Analysis of the decision making factors for heating and cooling systems in Spanish households," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 175-185.
    12. Meles, Tensay Hadush & Ryan, Lisa & Mukherjee, Sanghamitra C., 2022. "Heterogeneity in preferences for renewable home heating systems among Irish households," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    13. Stefania Troiano & Daniel Vecchiato & Francesco Marangon & Tiziano Tempesta & Federico Nassivera, 2019. "Households’ Preferences for a New ‘Climate-Friendly’ Heating System: Does Contribution to Reducing Greenhouse Gases Matter?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Wilson, C. & Pettifor, H. & Chryssochoidis, G., 2018. "Quantitative modelling of why and how homeowners decide to renovate energy efficiently," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1333-1344.
    15. Ma, Ben & Yu, Yihua & Urban, Frauke, 2018. "Green transition of energy systems in rural China: National survey evidence of households’ discrete choices on water heaters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 559-570.
    16. Freyre, Alisa & Klinke, Sandra & Patel, Martin K., 2020. "Carbon tax and energy programs for buildings: Rivals or allies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Tensay Meles & L. (Lisa B.) Ryan & Sanghamitra Mukherjee, 2019. "Preferences for Renewable Home Heating: A Choice Experiment Study of Heat Pump System in Ireland," Open Access publications 10197/11467, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    18. Heiskanen, Eva & Matschoss, Kaisa, 2017. "Understanding the uneven diffusion of building-scale renewable energy systems: A review of household, local and country level factors in diverse European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 580-591.
    19. McCoy, Daire & Curtice, John, 2018. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86625, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. McCoy, Daire & Curtis, John, 2018. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 64-86.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:716-727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.