IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v135y2017icp598-609.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interdependencies in security of electricity supply

Author

Listed:
  • Osorio, Sebastian
  • van Ackere, Ann
  • Larsen, Erik R.

Abstract

The analysis of security of electricity supply (SoES) is particularly complex due to, among others, the liberalisation process and the increasing penetration of renewable energies. Larsen et al. [1] propose a framework based on twelve dimensions to evaluate SoES for a single jurisdiction. However, actions aimed at improving one dimension might impact others negatively, adversely affecting the overall system. Understanding how these dimensions are interrelated is thus a prerequisite for appropriate planning and resource allocation. We apply a Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to these dimensions to determine the degree to which the different dimensions depend on each other. From this we derive an influence diagram to visualise the interdependencies and a scatter plot to categorise the dimensions as independent, driver, connector or outcome. Actions targeting the drivers or connectors are potentially the more effective ones a regulator can take, as the consequences will gradually ripple through the system. Having an integral view of the dimensions' interdependencies provides a better understanding of the higher-order changes an intervention may cause. This enables policymakers and regulators to identifying where in the system to intervene to achieve the desired effect with the least amount of resources and with as few undesirable side-effects as possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2017. "Interdependencies in security of electricity supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 598-609.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:598-609
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217310897
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.095?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ochoa, Camila & Gore, Olga, 2015. "The Finnish power market: Are imports from Russia low-cost?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 122-132.
    2. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. Lawrence Norton & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Ms. Sumiko Ogawa & Issouf Samaké & Marika Santoro, 2015. "Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2015/030, International Monetary Fund.
    3. de Vries, Laurens & Heijnen, Petra, 2008. "The impact of electricity market design upon investment under uncertainty: The effectiveness of capacity mechanisms," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 215-227, September.
    4. Kruyt, Bert & van Vuuren, D.P. & de Vries, H.J.M. & Groenenberg, H., 2009. "Indicators for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2166-2181, June.
    5. Lise, Wietze & van der Laan, Jeroen & Nieuwenhout, Frans & Rademaekers, Koen, 2013. "Assessment of the required share for a stable EU electricity supply until 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 904-913.
    6. Hayashi, Ayami & Tokimatsu, Koji & Yamamoto, Hiromi & Mori, Shunsuke, 2006. "Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1062-1075, October.
    7. Bunn, Derek W. & Larsen, Erik R., 1992. "Sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 420-429, May.
    8. Oseni, Musiliu O. & Pollitt, Michael G., 2016. "The promotion of regional integration of electricity markets: Lessons for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 628-638.
    9. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani & Drupady, Ira Martina & D’Agostino, Anthony L., 2011. "Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5846-5853.
    10. Larsen, Erik R. & Dyner, Isaac & Bedoya V., Leonardo & Franco, Carlos Jaime, 2004. "Lessons from deregulation in Colombia: successes, failures and the way ahead," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1767-1780, October.
    11. Ford, Andrew, 1999. "Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 637-658, October.
    12. Kato, Takaaki & Takahara, Shogo & Nishikawa, Masashi & Homma, Toshimitsu, 2013. "A case study of economic incentives and local citizens' attitudes toward hosting a nuclear power plant in Japan: Impacts of the Fukushima accident," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 808-818.
    13. Steinbach, Armin, 2013. "Barriers and solutions for expansion of electricity grids—the German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 224-229.
    14. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
    15. Larsen, Erik R. & Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2017. "A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 646-655.
    16. Lund, Peter D. & Lindgren, Juuso & Mikkola, Jani & Salpakari, Jyri, 2015. "Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 785-807.
    17. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
    18. Ren, Jingzheng & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 838-849.
    19. Gouveia, João Pedro & Dias, Luís & Martins, Inês & Seixas, Júlia, 2014. "Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 438-447.
    20. Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
    21. Carvajal, S.X. & Serrano, J. & Arango, S., 2013. "Colombian ancillary services and international connections: Current weaknesses and policy challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 770-778.
    22. Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2016. "From nuclear phase-out to renewable energies in the Swiss electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 8-22.
    23. Petrova, Maria A., 2016. "From NIMBY to acceptance: Toward a novel framework — VESPA — For organizing and interpreting community concerns," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1280-1294.
    24. Dominique Finon & Virginie Pignon, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Post-Print hal-00716312, HAL.
    25. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    26. De Vries, Laurens J., 2007. "Generation adequacy: Helping the market do its job," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 20-35, March.
    27. Cicia, Gianni & Cembalo, Luigi & Del Giudice, Teresa & Palladino, Andrea, 2012. "Fossil energy versus nuclear, wind, solar and agricultural biomass: Insights from an Italian national survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 59-66.
    28. Peter Bradford, 2012. "The nuclear landscape," Nature, Nature, vol. 483(7388), pages 151-152, March.
    29. Shih, Yi-Hsuan & Shi, Nian-Xun & Tseng, Chao-Heng & Pan, Shu-Yuan & Chiang, Pen-Chi, 2016. "Socioeconomic costs of replacing nuclear power with fossil and renewable energy in Taiwan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 369-381.
    30. Chandra Pedamallu & Linet Ozdamar & Erik Kropat & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, 2012. "A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 319-336, June.
    31. Hach, Daniel & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 270-280.
    32. Dyner, Isaac & Larsen, Erik R., 2001. "From planning to strategy in the electricity industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(13), pages 1145-1154, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Itiki, Rodney & Manjrekar, Madhav & Di Santo, Silvio Giuseppe & Machado, Luis Fernando M., 2020. "Technical feasibility of Japan-Taiwan-Philippines HVdc interconnector to the Asia Pacific Super Grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Summanen, Tuomo & Arminen, Heli, 2018. "Ownership unbundling in electricity distribution: The Russian experience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1199-1210.
    3. Cruz, Marco R.M. & Fitiwi, Desta Z. & Santos, Sérgio F. & Catalão, João P.S., 2018. "A comprehensive survey of flexibility options for supporting the low-carbon energy future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 338-353.
    4. Wang, Huaizhi & Ruan, Jiaqi & Ma, Zhengwei & Zhou, Bin & Fu, Xueqian & Cao, Guangzhong, 2019. "Deep learning aided interval state prediction for improving cyber security in energy internet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1292-1304.
    5. Balasubramanian, S. & Balachandra, P., 2021. "Effectiveness of demand response in achieving supply-demand matching in a renewables dominated electricity system: A modelling approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    7. Berjawi, A.E.H. & Walker, S.L. & Patsios, C. & Hosseini, S.H.R., 2021. "An evaluation framework for future integrated energy systems: A whole energy systems approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Evgeny Lisin & Wadim Strielkowski & Veronika Chernova & Alena Fomina, 2018. "Assessment of the Territorial Energy Security in the Context of Energy Systems Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Le, Thai-Ha & Han, Phoumin & Le, Ha-Chi & Bui, Manh-Tien, 2023. "Electricity market development in Vietnam: Historical trends and future outlooks," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gencer, Busra & Larsen, Erik Reimer & van Ackere, Ann, 2020. "Understanding the coevolution of electricity markets and regulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Larsen, Erik R. & Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2017. "A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 646-655.
    3. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    4. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.
    5. Arango, Santiago & Castañeda, Jaime A. & Larsen, Erik R., 2013. "Mothballing in power markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-134.
    6. Cepeda, Mauricio & Finon, Dominique, 2013. "How to correct for long-term externalities of large-scale wind power development by a capacity mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 671-685.
    7. Zapata, Sebastian & Castaneda, Monica & Franco, Carlos Jaime & Dyner, Isaac, 2019. "Clean and secure power supply: A system dynamics based appraisal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 9-21.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13149 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cepeda, Mauricio & Finon, Dominique, 2011. "Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3128-3143, June.
    10. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    12. Hasani, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 277-293.
    13. Rios-Festner, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2020. "Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Petitet, Marie & Finon, Dominique & Janssen, Tanguy, 2017. "Capacity adequacy in power markets facing energy transition: A comparison of scarcity pricing and capacity mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 30-46.
    15. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.
    16. Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2018. "Forward contracts in electricity markets and capacity investment: A simulation study," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Simshauser, Paul & Gilmore, Joel, 2022. "Climate change policy discontinuity & Australia's 2016-2021 renewable investment supercycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    18. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    19. Simshauser, Paul, 2022. "Rooftop solar PV and the peak load problem in the NEM's Queensland region," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Simshauser, P. & Gilmore, J., 2020. "Is the NEM broken? Policy discontinuity and the 2017-2020 investment megacycle," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2048, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Berjawi, A.E.H. & Walker, S.L. & Patsios, C. & Hosseini, S.H.R., 2021. "An evaluation framework for future integrated energy systems: A whole energy systems approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:598-609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.