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From nuclear phase-out to renewable energies in the Swiss electricity market

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  • Osorio, Sebastian
  • van Ackere, Ann

Abstract

Liberalisation and the ever larger share of variable renewable energies (VRES), e.g. photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, affect security of supply (SoS). We develop a system dynamics model to analyse the impact of VRES on the investment decision process and to understand how SoS is affected. We focus on the Swiss electricity market, which is currently undergoing a liberalisation process, and simultaneously faces the encouragement of VRES and a nuclear phase out. Our results show that nuclear production is replaced mainly by PV and imports; the country becomes a net importer. This evolution points to a problem of capacity adequacy. The resulting price rise, together with the subsidies needed to support VRES, lead to a rise in tariffs. In the presence of a high share of hydro, the de-rated margin may give a misleading picture of the capacity adequacy. We thus propose a new metric, the annual energy margin, which considers the energy available from all sources, while acknowledging that hydro-storage can function as a battery. This measure shows a much less reassuring picture of the country’s capacity adequacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2016. "From nuclear phase-out to renewable energies in the Swiss electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 8-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:93:y:2016:i:c:p:8-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.043
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Fernández-Guillamón & Guillermo Martínez-Lucas & Ángel Molina-García & Jose-Ignacio Sarasua, 2020. "Hybrid Wind–PV Frequency Control Strategy under Variable Weather Conditions in Isolated Power Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Paul Adrianus van Baal, 2020. "Effectiveness of a strategic energy reserve during the energy transition: The case of Switzerland," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 21(2), pages 65-90, June.
    3. Kaller, Alexander & Bielen, Samantha & Marneffe, Wim, 2018. "The impact of regulatory quality and corruption on residential electricity prices in the context of electricity market reforms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 514-524.
    4. Eser, P. & Chokani, N. & Abhari, R., 2018. "Trade-offs between integration and isolation in Switzerland's energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 19-27.
    5. Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2017. "Interdependencies in security of electricity supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 598-609.
    6. Pilpola, Sannamari & Lund, Peter D., 2018. "Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 323-336.
    7. Weiss, Olga & Pareschi, Giacomo & Georges, Gil & Boulouchos, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Swiss energy transition: Policies to address the Energy Trilemma," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    8. Zimmermann, Florian & Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "Cross-border effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms: The Swiss case," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 35, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    9. Rios-Festner, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2020. "Long-term assessment of power capacity incentives by modeling generation investment dynamics under irreversibility and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.
    11. Zapata, Sebastian & Castaneda, Monica & Franco, Carlos Jaime & Dyner, Isaac, 2019. "Clean and secure power supply: A system dynamics based appraisal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 9-21.
    12. Zhang, Pengpeng & Zhang, Lixiao & Tian, Xin & Hao, Yan & Wang, Changbo, 2018. "Urban energy transition in China: Insights from trends, socioeconomic drivers, and environmental impacts of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 173-183.
    13. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2022. "Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    14. Larsen, Erik R. & Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2017. "A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 646-655.
    15. Xexakis, Georgios & Hansmann, Ralph & Volken, Sandra P. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2020. "Models on the wrong track: Model-based electricity supply scenarios in Switzerland are not aligned with the perspectives of energy experts and the public," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    17. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
    18. Gencer, Busra & van Ackere, Ann, 2021. "Achieving long-term renewable energy goals: Do intermediate targets matter?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.

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