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Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy uncertainties in the evolution of the Swiss electricity system

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  • Kannan, Ramachandran
  • Turton, Hal

Abstract

About one-third of the Swiss nuclear capacity is due to be retired in the next ten years, creating a short-term supply gap. In addition, the Swiss Federal Council has decided to phase out nuclear power over the longer term by not replacing existing nuclear power plants after retirement. We have analysed possible electricity supply options for responding to these two developments under different conditions using the Swiss TIMES electricity sector model—a least-cost optimization framework. Short-term demand can be cost-effectively met with new investment in gas-fired generation capacity. However, meeting the government’s CO2 emission and renewable electricity targets requires an accelerated investment in renewable generation and/or increased reliance on imported electricity. In the medium and longer term, nuclear represents the most cost-effective option. The alternatives to nuclear lead to increased dependence on imported natural gas, seasonal renewables and imported electricity. All non-nuclear supply options increase the cost of electricity supply by between 50 and 150%, and create a range of tradeoffs between supply security and climate change mitigation goal. However, it is expected that an accelerated uptake of end-use efficiency measures and demand side management would reduce future electricity demand, thus reducing the need for some expensive supply options.

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  • Kannan, Ramachandran & Turton, Hal, 2012. "Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy uncertainties in the evolution of the Swiss electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-406.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:391-406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kannan, R., 2009. "Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies - Implication for UK decarbonisation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1873-1886, October.
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    1. Kosugi, Takanobu, 2016. "Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 102-114.
    2. Ramachandran Kannan & Evangelos Panos & Stefan Hirschberg & Tom Kober, 2022. "A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3-4), September.
    3. Gencer, Busra & Larsen, Erik Reimer & van Ackere, Ann, 2020. "Understanding the coevolution of electricity markets and regulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Bauer, Christian & Hofer, Johannes & Althaus, Hans-Jörg & Del Duce, Andrea & Simons, Andrew, 2015. "The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 871-883.
    5. Eser, P. & Chokani, N. & Abhari, R., 2018. "Trade-offs between integration and isolation in Switzerland's energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 19-27.
    6. Pattupara, Rajesh & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2016. "Alternative low-carbon electricity pathways in Switzerland and it’s neighbouring countries under a nuclear phase-out scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 152-168.
    7. Panos, Evangelos & Kober, Tom & Wokaun, Alexander, 2019. "Long term evaluation of electric storage technologies vs alternative flexibility options for the Swiss energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2017. "The impact of policy actions and future energy prices on the cost-optimal development of the energy system in Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-102.
    9. García-Gusano, Diego & Espegren, Kari & Lind, Arne & Kirkengen, Martin, 2016. "The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 56-72.
    10. Kannan, Ramachandran & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2016. "Interplay between electricity and transport sectors – Integrating the Swiss car fleet and electricity system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 514-531.
    11. Malischek, Raimund & Trüby, Johannes, 2016. "The future of nuclear power in France: an analysis of the costs of phasing-out," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 908-921.
    12. Schlecht, Ingmar & Weigt, Hannes, 2014. "Swissmod - a model of the Swiss electricity market," Working papers 2014/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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