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Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures

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  • Hao, Han
  • Wang, Hewu
  • Ouyang, Minggao

Abstract

We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

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  • Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2012. "Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:244-251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.061
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    16. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    17. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi, 2016. "Natural gas as vehicle fuel in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 521-533.
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    19. Han Hao & Michael Wang & Yan Zhou & Hewu Wang & Minggao Ouyang, 2015. "Levelized costs of conventional and battery electric vehicles in china: Beijing experiences," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1229-1246, October.
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