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China automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions outlook to 2050

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  • Chuanjun Lyu
  • Xunmin Ou
  • Xiliang Zhang

Abstract

Energy security and climate change are topics of primary interest in current Chinese policy debates about the international politics, economy, and environment. In the ongoing process of modernization, China will continue to face challenges to provide secure energy supplies and mitigate climate change over time. Given the size of the country, the development and consumption of future energy supplies will have a substantial impact on global energy markets and the local environment and implications for global climate change. China is currently one of the fastest growing regions in the global automobile market and is the world’s largest automobile market. As a result, automotive energy has become a core energy and environmental issue for the country. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the dynamics of automotive energy development in China in a systematic way by examining the interactions of economics, technology, and policy. The analysis and paper offers an overview of recent automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Two alternative energy scenarios, business as usual (BAU) and integrated policy scenario (IPS), were developed using the Tsinghua China Automotive Energy Model (TCAEM). The two scenarios depict two possible trajectories of automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions out to 2050. These reveal important implications for technology innovation and policy intervention, which are discussed in the context of China developing a sustainable automotive energy industry. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Chuanjun Lyu & Xunmin Ou & Xiliang Zhang, 2015. "China automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions outlook to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 627-650, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:20:y:2015:i:5:p:627-650
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9620-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Hailin & Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang, 2017. "Mode, technology, energy consumption, and resulting CO2 emissions in China's transport sector up to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 719-733.
    3. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Xiao-Yi & Yu, Biying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "Sustainable development pathway for intercity passenger transport: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Kejun, Jiang & Chenmin, He & Songli, Zhu & Pianpian, Xiang & Sha, Chen, 2021. "Transport scenarios for China and the role of electric vehicles under global 2 °C/1.5 °C targets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Rodriguez-Valencia, Alvaro & Ortúzar, J. de D. & Mesa-Garcia, Santiago, 2024. "Understanding the differences between car and motorcycle ownership. The case of Bogotá, Colombia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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