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The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2

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  • Cuenot, Francois
  • Fulton, Lew
  • Staub, John

Abstract

Travel statistics for most countries are subject to numerous uncertainties. But as presented in this paper, the IEA has developed a sufficient database to estimate passenger travel by mode for major countries and regions around the world, and produce consistent travel and energy use estimates, perhaps the first of their kind. For example, we estimate that in 2005 total global passenger travel using motorised modes was about 40 trillion kilometres, or about 6000 per person. The IEA has also developed a set of travel projections to 2050, including a Baseline and a “Modal Shift” scenario. This paper provides the result of this analysis and estimates the potential impacts on CO2 from a 25% reduction in car and air travel by 2050 relative to the Baseline in that year. The modelling effort and policy analysis used to support the findings are also described.

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  • Cuenot, Francois & Fulton, Lew & Staub, John, 2012. "The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 98-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:98-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arne Höltl & Cathy Macharis & Klaas De Brucker, 2017. "Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Lovelace, Robin & Parkin, John & Cohen, Tom, 2020. "Open access transport models: A leverage point in sustainable transport planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 47-54.
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    5. Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel Ekici, Şule, 2018. "Connecting logistics performance to export: A scenario-based approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 69-82.
    6. Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    8. Espinosa Valderrama, Mónica & Cadena Monroy, Ángela Inés & Behrentz Valencia, Eduardo, 2019. "Challenges in greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries: A case study of the Colombian transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 111-122.
    9. Masanobu Kii, 2020. "Reductions in CO 2 Emissions from Passenger Cars under Demography and Technology Scenarios in Japan by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Maha Attia & Taslim Alade & Shady Attia, 2023. "The Influence of Passenger Car Banning Policies on Modal Shifts: Rotterdam’s Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Anne Aguiléra & Jean Grébert, 2014. "Passenger transport mode share in cities: exploration of actual and future trends with a worldwide survey," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(3/4), pages 203-216.

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    Keywords

    Transport; Mode shift modelling; CO2 emissions;
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