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Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

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  • Meyer, Ina
  • Kaniovski, Serguei
  • Scheffran, Jürgen

Abstract

Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO2 emissions.

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  • Meyer, Ina & Kaniovski, Serguei & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012. "Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:66-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.043
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    1. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Jun Guan Neoh & Maxwell Chipulu & Alasdair Marshall, 2017. "What encourages people to carpool? An evaluation of factors with meta-analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 423-447, March.
    3. Saad AlQuhtani, 2022. "Ridesharing as a Potential Sustainable Transportation Alternative in Suburban Universities: The Case of Najran University, Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2016. "Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 121-131.
    5. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    6. Jian Chai & Shubin Wang & Shouyang Wang & Ju’e Guo, 2012. "Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Lei, Chao & Jiang, Zhoutong & Ouyang, Yanfeng, 2020. "Path-based dynamic pricing for vehicle allocation in ridesharing systems with fully compliant drivers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 60-75.
    8. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Firnkorn, Jörg, 2012. "Triangulation of two methods measuring the impacts of a free-floating carsharing system in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1654-1672.
    10. Neoh, Jun Guan & Chipulu, Maxwell & Marshall, Alasdair & Tewkesbury, Adam, 2018. "How commuters’ motivations to drive relate to propensity to carpool: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 128-148.
    11. Tsiakmakis, Stefanos & Fontaras, Georgios & Ciuffo, Biagio & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "A simulation-based methodology for quantifying European passenger car fleet CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 447-465.
    12. Firnkorn, Jörg & Shaheen, Susan PhD, 2016. "Generic time- and method-interdependencies of empirical impact-measurements: A generalizable model of adaptation-processes of carsharing-users' mobility-behavior over time," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2t18w5rz, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    13. Berry, Carl & Börjesson, Maria, 2024. "Income and fuel price elasticities of car use on micro panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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