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Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China

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  • Lin, Bo-qiang
  • Liu, Jiang-hua

Abstract

More than 20 countries in the world have already reached a maximum capacity in their coal production (peak coal production) such as Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany. China, home to the third largest coal reserves in the world, is the world's largest coal producer and consumer, making it part of the Big Six. At present, however, China's coal production has not yet reached its peak. In this article, logistic curves and gaussian curves are used to predict China's coal peak and the results show that it will be between the late 2020s and the early 2030s. Based on the predictions of coal production and consumption, China's net coal import could be estimated for coming years. This article also analyzes the impact of China's net coal import on the international coal market, especially the Asian market, and on China's economic development and energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:512-519
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tao, Zaipu & Li, Mingyu, 2007. "What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies--A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3145-3154, June.
    2. Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
    3. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
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