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Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen

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  • Macintosh, Andrew

Abstract

The object of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was to reach an agreement on a new international legal architecture for addressing anthropogenic climate change post-2012. It failed in this endeavour, producing a political agreement in the form of the Copenhagen Accord. The Accord sets an ambitious goal of holding the increase in the global average surface temperature to below 2 °C. This paper describes 45 CO2-only mitigation scenarios that provide an indication of what would need to be done to stay within the 2 °C limit if the international climate negotiations stay on their current path. The results suggest that if developed countries adopt a combined target for 2020 of =5%/yr, and possibly >=10%/yr, post-2030 (after a decade transitional period) in order to keep warming to 2 °C. If aggressive abatement commitments for 2020 are not forthcoming from all the major emitting countries, the likelihood of warming being kept within the 2 °C limit is diminutive.

Suggested Citation

  • Macintosh, Andrew, 2010. "Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2964-2975, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:2964-2975
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Andreas Freytag & Leo Wangler, 2008. "Strategic Trade Policy als Response to Climate Change? The Political Economy of Climate Policy," Jena Economics Research Papers 2008-001, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Tokimatsu, Koji & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1899-1906.
    4. Svetlana Maslyuk & Dinusha Dharmaratna, 2011. "Comparative analysis of the existing and proposed ETS," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Chicco, Gianfranco & Stephenson, Paule M., 2012. "Effectiveness of setting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-31.
    6. Steven Smith & Philip Rasch, 2013. "The long-term policy context for solar radiation management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 487-497, December.

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