IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-46340-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Murat Arsel

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Gorka Muñoa

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Guillem Rius-Taberner

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Carlos Mena

    (Universidad San Francisco de Quito)

  • Martí Orta-Martínez

    (Universitat de Barcelona
    Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

To limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, CO2 emissions must be drastically reduced. Accordingly, approximately 97%, 81%, and 71% of existing coal and conventional gas and oil resources, respectively, need to remain unburned. This article develops an integrated spatial assessment model based on estimates and locations of conventional oil resources and socio-environmental criteria to construct a global atlas of unburnable oil. The results show that biodiversity hotspots, richness centres of endemic species, natural protected areas, urban areas, and the territories of Indigenous Peoples in voluntary isolation coincide with 609 gigabarrels (Gbbl) of conventional oil resources. Since 1524 Gbbl of conventional oil resources are required to be left untapped in order to keep global warming under 1.5 °C, all of the above-mentioned socio-environmentally sensitive areas can be kept entirely off-limits to oil extraction. The model provides spatial guidelines to select unburnable fossil fuels resources while enhancing collateral socio-environmental benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Pellegrini & Murat Arsel & Gorka Muñoa & Guillem Rius-Taberner & Carlos Mena & Martí Orta-Martínez, 2024. "The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46340-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46340-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46340-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-46340-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    2. Philippe Le Billon & Berit Kristoffersen, 2020. "Just cuts for fossil fuels? Supply-side carbon constraints and energy transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(6), pages 1072-1092, September.
    3. Nicolas Gaulin & Philippe Le Billon, 2020. "Climate change and fossil fuel production cuts: assessing global supply-side constraints and policy implications," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 888-901, September.
    4. Orta-Martínez, Martí & Finer, Matt, 2010. "Oil frontiers and indigenous resistance in the Peruvian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 207-218, December.
    5. Fergus Green, 2018. "Anti-fossil fuel norms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 103-116, September.
    6. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    7. Joeri Rogelj & Piers M. Forster & Elmar Kriegler & Christopher J. Smith & Roland Séférian, 2019. "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7765), pages 335-342, July.
    8. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Murat Arsel, 2022. "The Supply Side of Climate Policies: Keeping Unburnable Fossil Fuels in the Ground," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 22(4), pages 1-14, Autumn.
    9. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    11. Dan Welsby & James Price & Steve Pye & Paul Ekins, 2021. "Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7875), pages 230-234, September.
    12. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    13. Speirs, Jamie & McGlade, Christophe & Slade, Raphael, 2015. "Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 654-664.
    14. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    15. Peter Erickson & Michael Lazarus & Georgia Piggot, 2018. "Limiting fossil fuel production as the next big step in climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1037-1043, December.
    16. Steve Pye & Siân Bradley & Nick Hughes & James Price & Daniel Welsby & Paul Ekins, 2020. "An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Harro van Asselt & Peter Newell, 2022. "Pathways to an International Agreement to Leave Fossil Fuels in the Ground," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 22(4), pages 28-47, Autumn.
    18. Sivan Kartha & Simon Caney & Navroz K. Dubash & Greg Muttitt, 2018. "Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 117-129, September.
    19. Fergus Green & Declan Kuch, 2022. "Counting Carbon or Counting Coal? Anchoring Climate Governance in Fossil Fuel-Based Accountability Frameworks," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 22(4), pages 48-69, Autumn.
    20. Pellegrini, Lorenzo & Tasciotti, Luca & Spartaco, Andrea, 2021. "A regional resource curse? A synthetic-control approach to oil extraction in Basilicata, Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    21. Greg Muttitt & Sivan Kartha, 2020. "Equity, climate justice and fossil fuel extraction: principles for a managed phase out," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 1024-1042, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Pranav P. Sharma & Xiao‐Dong Zhou, 2017. "Electrocatalytic conversion of carbon dioxide to fuels: a review on the interaction between CO2 and the liquid electrolyte," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), July.
    4. Lukas Folkens & Petra Schneider, 2022. "Responsible Carbon Resource Management through Input-Oriented Cap and Trade (IOCT)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Vivien Foster & Philipp A. Trotter & Sven Werner & Melin Niedermayer & Yacob Mulugetta & Ploy Achakulwisut & Aoife Brophy & Navroz K. Dubash & Sam Fankhauser & Adam Hawkes & Stephanie Hirmer & Stuart , 2024. "Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 242-250, March.
    6. Draeger, Rebecca & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Müller-Casseres, Eduardo & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2022. "Stranded crude oil resources and just transition: Why do crude oil quality, climate ambitions and land-use emissions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Taylor, David D.J. & Layurova, Mariya & Vogel, David S. & Slocum, Alexander H., 2019. "Black into green: A BIG opportunity for North Dakota’s oil and gas producers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1189-1197.
    8. Weth, Mark A. & Baltzer, Markus & Bertram, Christoph & Hilaire, Jérôme & Johnston, Craig, 2024. "The scenario-based equity price impact induced by greenhouse gas emissions," Discussion Papers 30/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars, 2016. "Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 541-571, November.
    10. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    11. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    12. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Moreaux, Michel & Amigues, Jean-Pierre & van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2024. "Carbon capture: Storage vs. Utilization," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Stefano Carattini & Suphi Sen, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and Stranded Assets: Evidence from Washington State," CESifo Working Paper Series 7785, CESifo.
    15. Zhong, Qiumeng & Zhang, Zhihe & Wang, Heming & Zhang, Xu & Wang, Yao & Wang, Peng & Ma, Fengmei & Yue, Qiang & Du, Tao & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Liang, Sai, 2023. "Incorporating scarcity into footprints reveals diverse supply chain hotspots for global fossil fuel management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    16. Ha, Yuejiao & Teng, Fei, 2013. "Midway toward the 2 degree target: Adequacy and fairness of the Cancún pledges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 856-865.
    17. Bing Xue & Yong Geng & Katrin Müller & Chengpeng Lu & Wanxia Ren, 2014. "Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, February.
    18. Ajay Gambhir & Laurent Drouet & David McCollum & Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Adam Hawkes & Oliver Fricko & Petr Havlik & Keywan Riahi & Valentina Bosetti & Jason Lowe, 2017. "Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, January.
    19. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Ashwin K Seshadri, 2017. "Economics of limiting cumulative CO2 emissions," Papers 1706.03502, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46340-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.