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Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

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  • Nygren, Emma
  • Aleklett, Kjell
  • Höök, Mikael

Abstract

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Nygren, Emma & Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael, 2009. "Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4003-4010, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:10:p:4003-4010
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    1. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
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    2. Edwards, Holly A. & Dixon-Hardy, Darron & Wadud, Zia, 2016. "Aircraft cost index and the future of carbon emissions from air travel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 553-562.
    3. Chen, Lihong & Ren, Jingzheng, 2018. "Multi-attribute sustainability evaluation of alternative aviation fuels based on fuzzy ANP and fuzzy grey relational analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 176-186.
    4. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    5. Yilmaz, Nadir & Atmanli, Alpaslan, 2017. "Sustainable alternative fuels in aviation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P2), pages 1378-1386.
    6. Li, Haowei & Ma, Hongwei & Zhao, Weijie & Li, Xuehui & Long, Jinxing, 2019. "Upgrading lignin bio-oil for oxygen-containing fuel production using Ni/MgO: Effect of the catalyst calcination temperature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Kim, Yohan & Lee, Joosung & Ahn, Jaemyung, 2019. "Innovation towards sustainable technologies: A socio-technical perspective on accelerating transition to aviation biofuel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 317-329.
    8. Wang, Hongliang & Yang, Bin & Zhang, Qian & Zhu, Wanbin, 2020. "Catalytic routes for the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to aviation fuel range hydrocarbons," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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    10. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    11. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zhong-Yu & Wang, Shou-Yang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Aviation fuel demand development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-235.
    12. Hamdan, Sadeque & Jouini, Oualid & Cheaitou, Ali & Jemai, Zied & Granberg, Tobias Andersson & Josefsson, Billy, 2022. "Air traffic flow management under emission policies: Analyzing the impact of sustainable aviation fuel and different carbon prices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 14-40.
    13. Mayer, Robert & Ryley, Tim & Gillingwater, David, 2015. "Eco-positioning of airlines: Perception versus actual performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 82-89.
    14. Thowayeb H. Hassan & Abu Elnasr E. Sobaih & Amany E. Salem, 2021. "Factors Affecting the Rate of Fuel Consumption in Aircrafts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Kandaramath Hari, Thushara & Yaakob, Zahira & Binitha, Narayanan N., 2015. "Aviation biofuel from renewable resources: Routes, opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1234-1244.
    16. Becken, Susanne & Lennox, James, 2012. "Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-142.
    17. Michelmann, Johannes & Schmalz, Ulrike & Becker, Axel & Stroh, Florian & Behnke, Sebastian & Hornung, Mirko, 2023. "Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

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