IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oscillatory components in the bell-shaped curves of the product life cycle modeling tool

Author

Listed:
  • Semenychev, Valery

    (Samara Academy of State and Municipal Management)

  • Kurkin, Eugene

    (Samara Academy of State and Municipal Management)

  • Semenychev, Eugene

    (Samara Academy of State and Municipal Management)

  • Danilova, Anastasia

    (Samara Academy of State and Municipal Management)

Abstract

Product life cycle models set consisting of bell-shape trend models and five oscillating components structures was suggested. Genetic algorithm type method with ARMA model construction to allocate frequencies was submitted to model parameters identification. The examples of oil, gas and coal mining real samples modeling and forecasting with all proposed models were considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Semenychev, Valery & Kurkin, Eugene & Semenychev, Eugene & Danilova, Anastasia, 2014. "Oscillatory components in the bell-shaped curves of the product life cycle modeling tool," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 111-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2014_1_111-123.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugen Ursu & Kamil Feridun Turkman, 2012. "Periodic autoregressive model identification using genetic algorithms," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 398-405, May.
    2. Hammond, G.P. & Mackay, R.M., 1993. "Projections of UK oil and gas supply and demand to 2010," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 93-112.
    3. Patzek, Tadeusz W. & Croft, Gregory D., 2010. "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3109-3122.
    4. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    2. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V. & Danilova, A.A., 2017. "Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 448-460.
    3. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    4. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    5. Thameur Necibi, 2014. "Prospective Modelling of Oil Supply in Tunisia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 220-228.
    6. Adam R. Brandt, 2011. "Oil Depletion and the Energy Efficiency of Oil Production: The Case of California," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Lukáš Režný & Vladimír Bureš, 2019. "Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Jianghua & Yang, Yingchun, 2012. "Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 137-147.
    10. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    11. Benedykt Pepliński & Wawrzyniec Czubak, 2021. "The Influence of Opencast Lignite Mining Dehydration on Plant Production—A Methodological Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-29, March.
    12. Steward, David R. & Allen, Andrew J., 2016. "Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 36-48.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    14. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    15. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    16. Rezny, Lukas & White, James Buchanan & Maresova, Petra, 2019. "The knowledge economy: Key to sustainable development?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-300.
    17. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    18. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    19. Wu, X.F. & Chen, G.Q., 2018. "Coal use embodied in globalized world economy: From source to sink through supply chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 978-993.
    20. Haftendorn, C. & Kemfert, C. & Holz, F., 2012. "What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 274-283.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    product life cycle; bell-shape trend; oscillating component; genetic algorithm; ARMA model; oil; gas; coal; mining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.