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CO2 emissions from new cars and vehicle weight in Europe; How the EU regulation could have been avoided and how to reach it?

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  • Cuenot, François

Abstract

A segment- and fuel-disaggregated analysis of the production data of the new European vehicle market during the last decade helps to understand the sharp increase in average weight, and to introduce an indicator linking CO2 emissions to a vehicle's unit of weight. Using this indicator, simulations are made to calculate the average CO2 emissions if the average weight had stayed constant from 1995 to 2005. If the weight had remained constant, the 2008 target of 1998s voluntary agreement (VA) would have been met, and the recently approved regulation would probably have been unnecessary. Then, CO2 emissions are projected to 2015 using different vehicle characteristics and market penetration. Five scenarios have been introduced to study the different opportunities that could arise by 2015, including a backcasting scenario showing what is needed to reach the goal set by the recently approved EU climate package regulations. The analysis concludes that powertrain technologies alone are unlikely to bring the sufficient break in trends to reach set targets. Acting on average weight, through unitary vehicle weight or segment shifting, of new vehicles is key in reducing the average CO2 emissions in the short and medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuenot, François, 2009. "CO2 emissions from new cars and vehicle weight in Europe; How the EU regulation could have been avoided and how to reach it?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3832-3842, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:10:p:3832-3842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zervas, Efthimios & Lazarou, Christos, 2008. "Influence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 248-257, January.
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    2. Bastin, Cristina & Szklo, Alexandre & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli, 2010. "Diffusion of new automotive technologies for improving energy efficiency in Brazil's light vehicle fleet," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3586-3597, July.
    3. Weber, Sylvain, 2019. "Consumers' preferences on the Swiss car market: A revealed preference approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-118.
    4. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2013. "Gasoline, diesel and climate policy implications—Insights from the recent evolution of new car sales in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 23-32.
    5. Emmanuel Kemel & Roger Collet & Laurent Hivert, 2011. "Evidence for an endogenous rebound effect impacting long-run car use elasticity to fuel price," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2777-2786.
    6. Gonçalves, D.C. & Lopes, J.D.F. & Campilho, R.D.S.G. & Belinha, J., 2022. "Topology optimization using a natural neighbour meshless method combined with a bi-directional evolutionary algorithm," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 308-328.
    7. Kyle Kinler & Jeffrey Wagner, 2014. "Greenness versus safety in vehicle footprint selection," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-45, March.
    8. Iwona Bąk & Małgorzata Tarczyńska-Łuniewska & Anna Barwińska-Małajowicz & Paweł Hydzik & Dariusz Kusz, 2022. "Is Energy Use in the EU Countries Moving toward Sustainable Development?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-26, August.
    9. Rosal, Ignacio del, 2022. "European dieselization: Policy insights from EU car trade," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 181-194.
    10. Tovar, Miguel A., 2011. "An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households' cars," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5228-5242, September.
    11. Aileen Lam, 2013. "Projections of future emissions and energy use from passenger cars as a result of policies in the EU with a dynamic model of technological change," 4CMR Working Paper Series 005, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    12. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    13. Viri, Riku & Mäkinen, Johanna & Liimatainen, Heikki, 2021. "Modelling car fleet renewal in Finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 63-79.
    14. Sprei, Frances & Karlsson, Sten, 2013. "Energy efficiency versus gains in consumer amenities—An example from new cars sold in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 490-499.
    15. Kok, Robert, 2015. "Six years of CO2-based tax incentives for new passenger cars in The Netherlands: Impacts on purchasing behavior trends and CO2 effectiveness," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 137-153.
    16. Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
    17. Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia & Chávez-Baeza, Carlos, 2011. "Fuel economy of new passenger cars in Mexico: Trends from 1988 to 2008 and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8153-8162.

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