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Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050

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  • Bonilla, David
  • Arias Soberon, Héctor
  • Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche

Abstract

We assess the changes in Mexico's privately owned vehicle fleet and tax losses (fuel duty on gasoline) associated to the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) through a diffusion model. Our projections for 2050 focus on a) electricity use of EVs, b) gasoline use and c) revenue for Mexico's treasury. The model uses population growth and vehicles sales to project two items: a) EV diffusion and b) substitution rates of ICVs with EVs. The equation uses vehicle km travelled and average consumption of fuel to calculate gasoline use of vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonilla, David & Arias Soberon, Héctor & Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche, 2022. "Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:171:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004955
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113276
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Axon, Colin J. & Bonilla, David & Banister, David, 2016. "Estimating the grid payments necessary to compensate additional costs to prospective electric vehicle owners who provide vehicle-to-grid ancillary services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 715-727.
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    3. Ashley Nunes & Lucas Woodley & Philip Rossetti, 2022. "Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 527-532, June.
    4. Martino Tran & David Banister & Justin D. K. Bishop & Malcolm D. McCulloch, 2012. "Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 328-333, May.
    5. Orlando Reyes. & Roberto Escalante. & Anna Matas., 2010. "La demanda de gasolinas en México: Efectos y alternativas ante el cambio climático," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 32(1), pages 83-111, Enero-Jun.
    6. Bonilla, David & Schmitz, Klaus E. & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 217-227.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Sung-Eun & Woo, JongRoul, 2024. "Are electric vehicle users willing to pay tax for charging electric vehicles? A case study of South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Leslie Cardoza Cedillo & Michelle Montoya & Mónica Jaldón & Ma Guadalupe Paredes, 2023. "GHG Emission Accounting and Reduction Strategies in the Academic Sector: A Case Study in Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.

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