IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v169y2022ics0301421522004104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future

Author

Listed:
  • Aryanpur, Vahid
  • Fattahi, Mahshid
  • Mamipour, Siab
  • Ghahremani, Mahsa
  • Gallachóir, Brian Ó
  • Bazilian, Morgan D.
  • Glynn, James

Abstract

Substantial energy subsidies are recognised as the leading cause of Iran's inefficient electricity generation and consumption. This paper investigates the impacts of subsidy removal on future electricity demand and the required generation mix. A hybrid modelling framework is developed to analyse supply and demand sides under harmonised assumptions. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model combined with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecast electricity demand under subsidy removal scenarios at different paces. A partial equilibrium energy systems model (MESSAGE) offers a cost-optimal configuration of power generation technologies to meet the forecasted demand during the period 2017–2050. The findings demonstrate that energy subsidy reforms can reduce total electricity demand by 16% and could ensure a 31% cut in cumulative CO2 emissions. The scenario analysis also shows that under an early and steady reform scenario and with gradual removal, the development of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency plans become cost-competitive. In contrast, the late and rapid subsidy removal path should tackle the lock-in effect's risk. This reveals that the early action in energy subsidy reform should be considered a priority over the removal speed. Finally, this paper discusses the potential policy implications beyond Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Aryanpur, Vahid & Fattahi, Mahshid & Mamipour, Siab & Ghahremani, Mahsa & Gallachóir, Brian Ó & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Glynn, James, 2022. "How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522004104
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113190?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheon, Andrew & Urpelainen, Johannes & Lackner, Maureen, 2013. "Why do governments subsidize gasoline consumption? An empirical analysis of global gasoline prices, 2002–2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 382-390.
    2. Breton, Michèle & Mirzapour, Hossein, 2016. "Welfare implication of reforming energy consumption subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 232-240.
    3. Jun Rentschler & Morgan Bazilian, 2017. "Reforming fossil fuel subsidies: drivers, barriers and the state of progress," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 891-914, October.
    4. Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
    7. Timilsina, Govind R. & Pang, Jun & Xi, Yang, 2021. "Enhancing the quality of climate policy analysis in China: Linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Khalili Araghi, Mansor & Barkhordari, Sajjad, 2012. "An evaluation of the welfare effects of reducing energy subsides in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-404.
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Jiang, Zhujun, 2011. "Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 273-283, March.
    10. Horak, Daniel & Hainoun, Ali & Neumann, Hans-Martin, 2021. "Techno-economic optimisation of long-term energy supply strategy of Vienna city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Kuang, Yunming, 2020. "Household heterogeneity impact of removing energy subsidies in China: Direct and indirect effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Schaffitzel, Filip & Jakob, Michael & Soria, Rafael & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Ward, Hauke, 2020. "Can government transfers make energy subsidy reform socially acceptable? A case study on Ecuador," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    15. Fouad Khan, 2022. "Borders and pipelines," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 213-213, March.
    16. Monasterolo, Irene & Raberto, Marco, 2019. "The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 355-370.
    17. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    18. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    19. Acharya, Rajesh H. & Sadath, Anver C., 2017. "Implications of energy subsidy reform in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 453-462.
    20. Krook-Riekkola, Anna & Berg, Charlotte & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Söderholm, Patrik, 2017. "Challenges in top-down and bottom-up soft-linking: Lessons from linking a Swedish energy system model with a CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 803-817.
    21. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liu, Yu & Marchán, Estefanía & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2018. "Managing the distributional effects of energy taxes and subsidy removal in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 424-436.
    22. Kachoee, Mohammad Sadegh & Salimi, Mohsen & Amidpour, Majid, 2018. "The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 585-596.
    23. Jiang, Zhujun & Ouyang, Xiaoling & Huang, Guangxiao, 2015. "The distributional impacts of removing energy subsidies in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 111-122.
    24. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
    25. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Pargal, Sheoli, 2020. "Economics of energy subsidy reforms in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    26. Fortes, Patrícia & Pereira, Rui & Pereira, Alfredo & Seixas, Júlia, 2014. "Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 716-730.
    27. Ghorbani, Narges & Aghahosseini, Arman & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Assessment of a cost-optimal power system fully based on renewable energy for Iran by 2050 – Achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions and overcoming the water crisis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 125-148.
    28. Aryanpur, Vahid & Shafiei, Ehsan, 2015. "Optimal deployment of renewable electricity technologies in Iran and implications for emissions reductions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 882-893.
    29. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2010. "Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 744-750, February.
    30. Aryanpur, Vahid & Balyk, Olexandr & Daly, Hannah & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Glynn, James, 2022. "Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    31. Jamil, Rehan, 2020. "Hydroelectricity consumption forecast for Pakistan using ARIMA modeling and supply-demand analysis for the year 2030," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-10.
    32. Taiebnia, Ali & Barkhordari, Sajjad, 2022. "The dismantling of reform policies in the Iranian energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    33. Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 493-507.
    34. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Piontek, Franziska & Bertram, Christoph & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 882-894.
    35. Shafiei, Ehsan & Saboohi, Yadollah & Ghofrani, Mohammad B., 2009. "Optimal policy of energy innovation in developing countries: Development of solar PV in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1116-1127, March.
    36. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    37. Shehabi, Manal, 2020. "Diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters: Illustrations from Kuwait," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    38. Manzoor, Davood & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2017. "Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 330-339.
    39. Li, Jianglong & Sun, Chuanwang, 2018. "Towards a low carbon economy by removing fossil fuel subsidies?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-33.
    40. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Aijun, 2012. "Impacts of removing fossil fuel subsidies on China: How large and how to mitigate?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 741-749.
    41. Tavana, Alireza & Emami Javid, Alireza & Houshfar, Ehsan & Mahmoudzadeh Andwari, Amin & Ashjaee, Mehdi & Shoaee, Saeed & Maghmoomi, Abtin & Marashi, Fatima, 2019. "Toward renewable and sustainable energies perspective in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1194-1216.
    42. Shafiei, Ehsan & Saboohi, Yadollah & Ghofrani, Mohammad B., 2009. "Impact of innovation programs on development of energy system: Case of Iranian electricity-supply system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2230, June.
    43. Giuliano, Fernando & Lugo, Maria Ana & Masut, Ariel & Puig, Jorge, 2020. "Distributional effects of reducing energy subsidies: Evidence from recent policy reform in Argentina," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    44. Breisinger, Clemens & Mukashov, Askar & Raouf, Mariam & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2019. "Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 661-671.
    45. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang & Atsagli, Philip, 2016. "Environmental and welfare assessment of fossil-fuels subsidies removal: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Ghana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 1172-1179.
    46. Gangopadhyay, Shubhashis & Ramaswami, Bharat & Wadhwa, Wilima, 2005. "Reducing subsidies on household fuels in India: how will it affect the poor?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(18), pages 2326-2336, December.
    47. Messner, Sabine & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2000. "MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 267-282.
    48. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
    49. Arisoy, Ibrahim & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Estimating industrial and residential electricity demand in Turkey: A time varying parameter approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 959-964.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhattarai, Utsav & Maraseni, Tek & Apan, Armando & Devkota, Laxmi Prasad, 2023. "Rationalizing donations and subsidies: Energy ecosystem development for sustainable renewable energy transition in Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Leila Aghlimoghadam & Sadegh Salehi & Hans-Liudger Dienel, 2022. "A Contribution to Social Acceptance of PV in an Oil-Rich Country: Reflections on Governmental Organisations in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Matallah, Siham & Boudaoud, Souhila & Matallah, Amal & Ferhaoui, Mustapha, 2023. "The role of fossil fuel subsidies in preventing a jump-start on the transition to renewable energy: Empirical evidence from Algeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    4. Zheng Liu & Wenzhuo Sun, 2023. "Study on Low-Carbon Technology Investment Strategies for High Energy-Consuming Enterprises under the Health Co-Benefits of Carbon Emission Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Li, Zhi & Zhao, Qing & Guo, Hong & Huang, Ruting, 2024. "Impact of fossil fuel subsidies on energy-saving technological change in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hussain, Jafar, 2023. "Energy sustainability under the COVID-19 outbreak: Electricity break-off policy to minimize electricity market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Xu, Shang & Zhang, Jun, 2023. "The welfare impacts of removing coal subsidies in rural China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Bhuvandas, Dhanyashree & Gundimeda, Haripriya, 2020. "Welfare impacts of transport fuel price changes on Indian households: An application of LA-AIDS model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Zahra Zarepour, 2022. "Short- and long-run macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 Iranian energy subsidy reform," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-32, October.
    6. Majidpour, Mehdi, 2022. "Policy lessons from the execution of fuel dual-pricing: Insights for fuel-subsidizing economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    7. Ilyas, Rubina & Hussain, Khadim & Ullah, Mehreen Zaid & Xue, Jianhong, 2022. "Distributional impact of phasing out residential electricity subsidies on household welfare," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Li, Zhi & Zhao, Qing & Guo, Hong & Huang, Ruting, 2024. "Impact of fossil fuel subsidies on energy-saving technological change in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Saeed Solaymani, 2021. "Energy subsidy reform evaluation research – reviews in Iran," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 520-538, June.
    10. Daneshzand, Farzaneh & Asali, Mehdi & Al-Sobhi, Saad A. & Diabat, Ali & Elkamel, Ali, 2022. "A simulation-based optimization scheme for phase-out of natural gas subsidies considering welfare and economic measures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    11. Boudekhdekh, Karim, 2022. "A comparative analysis of energy subsidy in the MENA region," MPRA Paper 115275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Kuang, Yunming, 2020. "Household heterogeneity impact of removing energy subsidies in China: Direct and indirect effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    14. Korrakot Phomsoda & Nattapong Puttanapong & Mongkut Piantanakulchai, 2021. "Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    16. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2017. "The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-60.
    17. Aiman Albatayneh & Adel Juaidi & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2023. "The Negative Impact of Electrical Energy Subsidies on the Energy Consumption—Case Study from Jordan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    18. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    19. Gulay, Emrah & Sen, Mustafa & Akgun, Omer Burak, 2024. "Forecasting electricity production from various energy sources in Türkiye: A predictive analysis of time series, deep learning, and hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    20. Scobie, Michelle, 2017. "Fossil fuel reform in developing states: The case of Trinidad and Tobago, a petroleum producing small Island developing State," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 265-273.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.