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A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market

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  • Mel Devine
  • James Gleeson
  • John Kinsella
  • David Ramsey

Abstract

Daily gas demand in the UK is variable. This is partly due to weather patterns and the changing nature of electricity markets, where intermittent wind energy levels lead to variations in the demand for gas needed to produce electricity. This uncertainty makes it difficult for traders in the market to analyse the market. As a result, there is an increasing need for models of the UK natural gas market that include stochastic demand. In this paper, a Rolling Optimisation Model (ROM) of the UK natural gas market is introduced. It takes as an input stochastically generated scenarios of demand. The outputs of ROM are the flows of gas, i.e., how the different sources of supply meet demand, as well as how gas flows in to and out of gas storage facilities. The outputs also include the daily System Average Price of gas in the UK. The model was found to fit reasonably well to historic data (from the UK National Grid) for the years starting on the 1st of April for both 2010 and 2011. These results allow ROM to be used to predict future flows and prices of gas and to investigate various stress-test scenarios in the UK natural gas market. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:209-244
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-013-9216-4
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    Cited by:

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    3. Devine, Mel & Russo, Marianna, 2018. "LNG and gas storage optimisation and valuation: lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Papers WP606, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Jan Abrell & Friedrich Kunz, 2015. "Integrating Intermittent Renewable Wind Generation - A Stochastic Multi-Market Electricity Model for the European Electricity Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 117-147, March.
    5. Delalibera, Bruno R. & Serrano-Quintero, Rafael & Zimmermann, Guilherme G., 2023. "Reforms in the natural gas sector and economic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Bruno R. Delaribera & Rafael SerranoQuintero & Guilherme G. Zimmermann, 2023. "Reforms in the Natural Gas Sector and Economic Development," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2023/446, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Anne Neumann & Juan Rosellón & Hannes Weigt, 2015. "Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market—A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 149-181, March.
    8. Devine, Mel T. & Bertsch, Valentin, 2018. "Examining the benefits of load shedding strategies using a rolling-horizon stochastic mixed complementarity equilibrium model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 643-658.
    9. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 315-328.

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