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Noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis

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  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Nyberg, Henri

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the role of exchange rates in forecasting commodity prices. Consistent with previous studies, we find that commodity currencies hold out-of-sample predictive power for commodity prices when using standard linear predictive regressions. After we reconsider the evidence using noncausal autoregressions, which provide a better fit to the data and are able to accommodate the effects of nonlinearities and omitted variables, the predictive power of exchange rates disappears.

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  • Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2017. "Noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 424-433.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:424-433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.024
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    5. Frédérique Bec & Heino Bohn Nielsen & Sarra Saïdi, 2020. "Mixed Causal–Noncausal Autoregressions: Bimodality Issues in Estimation and Unit Root Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1413-1428, December.
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    7. Hardy, Nicolás & Ferreira, Tiago & Quinteros, Maria J. & Magner, Nicolás S., 2023. "“Watch your tone!”: Forecasting mining industry commodity prices with financial report tone," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    8. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2018. "The predictive relationship between exchange rate expectations and base metal prices," MPRA Paper 89423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Pincheira Brown, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás, 2019. "Forecasting base metal prices with the Chilean exchange rate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 256-281.
    10. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Bentancor, Andrea & Hardy, Nicolás & Jarsun, Nabil, 2022. "Forecasting fuel prices with the Chilean exchange rate: Going beyond the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viáfara, 2021. "Monthly Financial and Economic Uncertainty Index (IMIFE) for the Colombian Economy," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 95, pages 85-104, July-Dece.
    12. Alain Hecq & Daniel Velasquez-Gaviria, 2022. "Spectral estimation for mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models," Papers 2211.13830, arXiv.org.
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    21. Alain Hecq & Daniel Velasquez-Gaviria, 2023. "Spectral identification and estimation of mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible models," Papers 2310.19543, arXiv.org.
    22. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2017. "Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates," Borradores de Economia 1025, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Christian Gouriéroux & Yang Lu, 2023. "Noncausal affine processes with applications to derivative pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 766-796, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Exchange rates; Noncausal autoregression; Nonlinearity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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