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Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

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  • Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel

Abstract

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America.

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  • Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 97-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:hh-se-a07
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    Cited by:

    1. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
    2. Gabriel, S.A. & Rosendahl, K.E. & Egging, Ruud & Avetisyan, H.G. & Siddiqui, S., 2012. "Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 137-152.
    3. Robert A. Ritz, 2013. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage in global LNG markets," Working Papers EPRG 1317, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Dorigoni, Susanna & Graziano, Clara & Pontoni, Federico, 2010. "Can LNG increase competitiveness in the natural gas market?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7653-7664, December.
    5. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 137-150, June.
    6. Alexios Skarakis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2017. "An Optimization Model of the European Natural Gas System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 48-60.
    7. Chi Kong Chyong & David M Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2023. "Market Power and Long-term Gas Contracts: The Case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 55-74, January.
    8. Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Baltensperger, Tobias & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2020. "Solving oligopolistic equilibrium problems with convex optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 44-52.
    9. Ritz, Robert A., 2014. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 324-332.
    10. Kolb, Sebastian & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Frank, Jonas & Dettelbacher, Johannes & Ludwig, Ralf & Karl, Jürgen & Dillig, Marius, 2021. "Scenarios for the integration of renewable gases into the German natural gas market – A simulation-based optimisation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 151-166, June.
    13. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    14. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 151-166.
    15. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    16. Anne Neumann & Juan Rosellón & Hannes Weigt, 2015. "Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market—A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 149-181, March.
    17. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    18. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.
    19. Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, and Ruud Egging, 2016. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Supply Security," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    20. Neumann, Anne & Viehrig, Norman & Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "InTraGas - A Stylized Model of the European Natural Gas Network," MPRA Paper 65652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    22. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    23. Fazel M. Farimani & Seyed Reza Mirnezami & Ali Maleki, 2019. "A Gas Cartel in the Global Market? Hype or Reality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 296-304.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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