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Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons

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  • Lisi, Francesco
  • Nan, Fany

Abstract

Electricity price time series usually exhibit some form of nonstationarity, corresponding to long-term behavior, one or more periodic components as well as dependence on calendar effects. As a result, modeling electricity prices requires accounting for both long-term and periodic components. In the literature, several filtering procedures have been proposed but a standard has not yet been found. Furthermore, since different procedures are applied in contexts that are not homogeneous with respect to data, periods and final goals, a fair comparison is difficult. This work considers several methods for component estimation in a homogeneous framework and compares them according to specific criteria. The final purpose is to find an estimation procedure that performs well, independently of the intended market and that can be proposed as a reference for electricity price time series filtering.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:143-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Component estimation; Filtering procedures; Electricity prices; Long-term dynamics; Nonparametric methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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