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Modelling electricity day–ahead prices by multivariate Lévy semistationary processes

Author

Listed:
  • Almut E. D. Veraart

    (Imperial College London and CREATES)

  • Luitgard A. M. Veraart

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper presents a new modelling framework for day–ahead electricity prices based on multivariate Lévy semistationary (MLSS) processes. Day–ahead prices specify the prices for electricity delivered over certain time windows on the next day and are determined in a daily auction. Since there are several delivery periods per day, we use a multivariate model to describe the different day–ahead prices for the different delivery periods on the next day. We extend the work by Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2010) on univariate Lévy semistationary processes to a multivariate setting and discuss the probabilistic properties of the new class of stochastic processes. Furthermore, we provide a detailed empirical study using data from the European Energy Exchange (EEX) and give new insights into the intra–daily correlation structure of electricity day–ahead prices in the EEX market. The flexible structure of MLSS processes is able to reproduce the stylized facts of such data rather well. Furthermore, these processes can be used to model negative prices in electricity markets which started to occur recently and cannot be described by many classical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2012. "Modelling electricity day–ahead prices by multivariate Lévy semistationary processes," CREATES Research Papers 2012-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schneider, Stefan & Schneider, Stefan, 2010. "Power Spot Price Models with negative Prices," MPRA Paper 29958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    3. Schmidt, Rafael & Hrycej, Tomas & Stutzle, Eric, 2006. "Multivariate distribution models with generalized hyperbolic margins," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2065-2096, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2016. "The long-term trends on the electricity markets: Comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 432-442.
    2. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2014. "Discretization of Lévy semistationary processes with application to estimation," CREATES Research Papers 2014-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    4. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
    5. Afanasyev, Dmitriy & Fedorova, Elena, 2015. "The long-term trends on Russian electricity market: comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," MPRA Paper 62391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2016. "Semiparametric inference on the fractal index of Gaussian and conditionally Gaussian time series data," CREATES Research Papers 2016-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Depeng Wang, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2015. "Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," CREATES Research Papers 2015-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Fred Espen Benth & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2013. "Modelling energy spot prices by volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra processes," Papers 1307.6332, arXiv.org.
    10. Sauri, Orimar & Veraart, Almut E.D., 2017. "On the class of distributions of subordinated Lévy processes and bases," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 475-496.
    11. Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Risk premia in energy markets," CREATES Research Papers 2013-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2016. "Semiparametric inference on the fractal index of Gaussian and conditionally Gaussian time series data," Papers 1608.01895, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    13. Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2014. "Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," CREATES Research Papers 2013-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity market; day–ahead prices; multivariate Lévy semistationary process; stochastic volatility; correlation; panel structure.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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