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Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices: A data-rich model

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  • Zagaglia, Paolo

Abstract

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010. "Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices: A data-rich model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 409-417, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:409-417
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil Futures markets Factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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