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Exchange rate movements and the energy transition

Author

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  • Hong, Yanran
  • Luo, Keyu
  • Xing, Xiaochao
  • Wang, Lu
  • Huynh, Luu Duc Toan

Abstract

Exchange rate changes affect economic activities and reflect the country's financial strength. In the current critical energy transition period, are exchange rate changes affected by the global energy transition? This paper focuses on three major exchange rates: USD/EUR, USD/CNY, and USD/JPY. Besides, we use total energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors to capture the energy transition progress. We have the following findings. On average, total energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different sectors will not affect USD/EUR and USD/JYP but USD/CNY. However, further research shows that industrial total energy consumption will have a long-term impact on USD/JYP. USD/JYP will react to residential renewable energy consumption in the short term while the industrial sector in the middle-long term. Residential and commercial total energy consumption have a short-lived impact on USD/CNY. Residential and commercial renewable energy consumption can affect USD/CNY in the long term while the impact of the industrial sector on USD/CNY is transient. In addition, all sectors' CO2 emissions have a significant short-term impact on USD/CNY. Therefore, countries should formulate more flexible exchange rate policies based on energy transition needs in different end-use sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu & Xing, Xiaochao & Wang, Lu & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2024. "Exchange rate movements and the energy transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:136:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324004092
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107701
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; Exchange rate; Energy consumption; CO2 emissions; End-use sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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